Turfway Park Early Pick 5

Turfway Park Early Pick 5 kicks off at 5:55 ET

Race 1 | All-Weather | 6.5 Furlongs

#9 NaraShipped in to post a 77.6 / 67.5 NPT giving him the Best Last 4F and Best Last Final of the field, a look plenty worthy of Top Contender status.

#5 Hap’s VictoryGiven the tough ask to go longer for start of career and couldn’t make the distance but now gelded, the 69.8 / 65.4 running line (4F/6F) pulled out of his last route rates contentious here for an upset on the cutback in distance.

#9 Nara has a strong enough look to be used as an opinion here and singled in the Pick 5.  I find the #5 intriguing at a price but tough to justify doubling our ticket price of a Pick 5 to include.  Can be keyed in exotics or looked at for a win bet/double/maybe even back-up Pick 3.

Others underneath#1 can rebound here off the NPT and formerly nicely compressed running lines.#2 has been consistently compressed and should have a great shot at picking up minor awards.#3 is off a nice NPT move and while he does need a decent amount of improvement, he’s on the right path.#6 has flashed some nice speed here in the past and could figure to be in the first flight to hold on for exotics but tough to back as a consistent hanger and is a question mark leaving the Ward barn for another.#7 tough to leave out in exotics are debut runners with a price attached in maiden claiming events where half the field probably doesn't fit.  Been working well.#8 tough to trust as a single-digit price falling down the ladder entire career as a failed favorite many times and now makes a barn downgrade.#13 debut runner out wide can race in the clear and if he happens to fit well in this group, the post position might end up actually being a good thing.

Race 2 | All-Weather | 8 Furlongs

Tough race here.  You’ve got a large group of long-time losers with all the locals’ running lines pretty close to each other while the ML favorite rolls in from out of town.  #6 Classic Mark showed speed last year but the $325k purchase couldn’t sustain the main track.  Now off a long break and a big class drop, it’s feasible this one will appreciate the switch-up in ground but you’ll be yielding a short price for a long-benched question mark.  This isn’t exactly the barn’s kill shot spot as they’re 0 for 6 first time synthetic off 180+ day lay-offs.

If playing against the favorite, these runners stick out:#4 My Favorite UncleHas left himself a bit to do late in the past but quickened up in last to 64.4 / 66.0 and rates a shot with a trip.

#8 Close KnitShould be the favorite of the runners with Turfway experience with a 70.6 / 65.9 last out that would put him up in the first flight after a previous REV/NPT combo which signals a good foundation to keep moving forward here.

#9 Vail Of HonorOff a year break, sprung an NPT in a needed race then came back for a 58.3 / 64.9 matching where he left off a year ago.  Should be on track to move forward to a personal best for synthetic today but needs a good trip figuring to be closer to the back early here.

#11 Lead ActorBeen putting in a lot of local work here with 5 Turfway contests since December working up to last out’s 63.8 / 65.1 being his best.  Runs right back here 14 days off and looks to break through at a price.

Race 3 | All-Weather | 8.5 Furlongs

#1 CompleteSporting some subtle incremental progress in 4F/Final through this campaign and gets a drop here that makes her one to fear in the stretch today. 

#2 Moonlight RainHad a nice NPT off the break but didn’t move off it last couple settling in with Final Figures just below most of today’s field.  Catches a claim here from Asmussen and draws meet’s top rider.  Looking like an underlay on a runner who’s been beaten by 4 of today’s rivals recently and while the trainer/jockey combo looks enticing, that pair is actually 0 for 11 this last year.

#5 TaperineaGot her to settle nicely into a 62.5 / 65.2 win off a forward-spent NPT but now switches barns interrupting that trajectory.  Needs to improve a notch to repeat.

#6 ForgloTough decision to be made on this one.  On one hand, runner owns the best trip of this group on a 67.3 / 67.5 victory two back that should spell victory if repeated.  On the other, runner’s long-time campaign now features duds getting more frequent with 2 of the last 3 non-competitive.  Also, while NPTs are positive conditioning moves, they can also be stressful and this one comes off consecutive NPTs.  Possible this one is nearing or at the need for a break.

#7 I LikemWheels in off a SOFT/NPT combo looking plenty fit for an 8-year old, maybe just needing to show us a tad more though with the recent 64 Final Figures just a notch below many.  Respect but would prefer a higher number than this 4/1 ML to include.

#8 AddisonLooks to be racing into shape here coming off a 71.0 / 64.4 CPT.  The CPT for older horses is especially effective when earned in the third start of a campaign and that’s right where we find this one.  Win Bet.

#9 Runaway MomComes in off a dud 60 Final Figure but enticed to give this one an excuse on that since the regression came off a 64.5 / 67.2 which if re-visited puts this one right up there with the top contenders.  Willing to give this one a bounce-back opportunity for the more than fair odds offered if the 10/1 ML is any indication of actual price.

Race 4 | All-Weather | 6 Furlongs

Cheap claimers here and the theme seems to be a lot of runners that have been forward spent.  Two things pop into my mind; #1 Easy pickings if there’s a clear speed of the speed to slingshot away and #2 on the flipside, who’s got the compression going to be roaring late?  This covers two possible and likely outcomes when a fast pace is projected.

#12 Blue LilyWith plenty of backstretch to work into position, this one’s 77.9 / 62.1 last out rates her a good chance to grab the lead on a group of early speed that doesn’t have a great resume for sustaining it late.

#3 Gin N SinShe’s got the compression we’re looking for should this one fall apart off a 66.4 / 63.2 against winners after breaking her maiden on this course 2-back.

Honorable Mentions:  #2 might offer some middle ground with enough speed to be more in touch with the front if the pacesetters back up and the compressors are far back.  #4 and #8 are next up as options for compression runners should the #3 not find the trip.

Race 5 | All-Weather | 6 Furlongs

#1 American HeightsPushed off an NPT to a 77.9 / 69.0 in last having a nice shot to control this thing from the rail here with 2nd best Last 4F Figure and Top Last Final Figure of field.  Wouldn’t be surprised to see this one sent off as favorite.

#2 Cami CatVery forward upon Turfway arrival but tightened things up in last to 76.2 / 66.7.

#3 She’s On The Rocks77.0 / 68.1 NEG in debut from the clear outside.  Off that good debut at a price and a bullet work, imagine this one could get bet down some off this 6/1 ML.  The looming question with a 2nd out runner like this is how she’ll respond to now likely having to deal with traffic for the first time as she moves down into the field to the 3 post.

#6 CorbitaArrogate firster auctioned for half the stud fee and is likely more suited to two turns.  Leaning toward watching one but also worth note this is a high percentage spot for this barn (Debut, Synthetic, Msw).

#7 Not NegotiableSold debut at 71.1 / 66.6 NEG.  While technically a NEG, it’s a spread much closer to a COMP than some of the other NEG runners giving this one a bit more chance to move forward than other 2nd outs here.

#8 Vicki RoseWork tab is littered with bullets which might draw some support but she still rates an outsider here trying synthetic after a long break.  This is probably a needed race and the barn’s only 3 winners on synthetic averaged odds of 3/2.

#10 Texas MelodySolid running lines locally last year with a 77.9 / 67.1 best.  Is almost a year removed from that point, doesn’t boast much of a work tab coming into this return, and the connections here are a low percentage outfit.  All that said, she probably needs to be worked into at least one ticket like a Double or Exacta.  Despite all the unimpressive variables surrounding her return, she has the foundational figures to be competitive here should the horse decide to run to potential on her own.

#12 Honor HallarenPedigree isn’t overly impressive for this trip but the works are solid and the barn is a good one.  Fair enough price may stick on a debut runner that sure, might have too much work to do from the outside, but at least she’s breaking out in the clear and should have the opportunity to circle the field without trouble if she happens to be a good fit for this level and configuration.