Thursday Value Plays

Results:
GP6: #2 set the pace and faded while #7 scratched again.
GP8: #9 got up late as a $5.80 winner with #2 completing the $25.20 exacta.
PIM8: #2 failed to make the pace stalking in 2nd then faded.
BEL6: #3 a nice $11.00 winner but #5 missed the exacta finishing 3rd.

Gulfstream Park | Race 6 | Tapeta | 8.5 Furlongs
Top Pick: #2 Xy Time
Overall improvement off the break and for new barn, he could like this surface switch getting blinkers as the lone E-type in the race and gets Jaramillo aboard who specializes in this.
Live Longshot
#7 A Rose For Raven
Picked as the Value Plays’ algorithm’s Top Value Play here as longest ML on the board. The recency may not be there but we know the ability is in there somewhere evidenced by the blowout 75/80h REV victory on this course last November. Even though it’s a low percentage barn, the claim could still do the track as maybe Raven just needs a change-up in training regimen to get back to that top ability. Find it interesting runner has been re-entered then trainer scratched recently possibly patiently looking for the right race?

Gulfstream Park | Race 8 | Turf | 5 Furlongs
Top Pick: #9 Rockin Roller
NPT with a bit of an off Final on main track is a great conditioner for switching back to turf here. That should have put some nice sustainable pace into the horse which could result in him appreciating getting back to the less stressful turf. Because we’re looking for the right trip and flow here having to track them from off rail, let’s demand the public lets him go at least that 4/1 ML or better.
Live Longshots:
#2 Cruzin Man
Lightly-raced and moving forward. The latest tapeta line was a little more compressed than the previous which translates to expected improvement in second turf try.
#5 Papa Katz
Similar move from same trainer as #2 in R6 as they experiment with a surface switch here except going the other way. Has had some good conditioning recently with NPTs and a durable stretch of stringing together good races. Offers big odds if he likes the bounce of grass (I should use the term “bounce” lightly on this particular turf course I suppose) facing tougher competition today.

Pimlico | Race 8 | Dirt | 8.5 Furlongs
Top Pick: #2 Total Effort
They’ll have an odds-on favorite to deal with here so possible we could see decent win odds offered to try and steal this one. Regularly holds better 4F Figures than this field and maybe the weight break and rider switch here can get him to the front and allow him to stay on braver than typically.

Belmont Park | Race 6 | Dirt | 7 Furlongs
Top Pick: #3 Chaysenbryn
Nicely compressed 70/64 in last into a field whose typical 4F/Finals are each slightly above those figures separately, but don’t typically run together. That makes this extra eighth here project a positive and I hope the public fades to give me reason to take the value bet here.
#5 Run Devil
A logical runner to assign ML favorite as she returns to winning distance and fits “Bests System” (pg184 in Blinkers Off) as far as running line which any ML fav should. Won’t truly qualify as a play for the “Bests” as needed odds won’t be attained but worth mentioning as the choice in an Exacta with #3 as we look to the beat the Rice runner in here.