Saturday's Live Longshots

Churchill Downs | Race 5 | Dirt | 7 Furlongs | 2:45 ET
#3 Gunner Bay
NPT Top Contender added blinkers and cut back last out. Offers great value here facing winners first time while shipping from cheaper track. Churchill has been a strong track for NPT Top Contenders boasting a flat-bet ROI of +60% over the last year.

Woodbine | Race 4 | Turf | 8.5 Furlongs | 2:50 ET
#8 Painted Glory
Been searching for spot to break maiden trying some different distances and surfaces and seems runner could have finally drawn well here as she stands out figure-wise compared to rivals at those different configurations. Was a COMP on synthetic and a PLOW on turf in last so condition-wise looks plenty ready to go.

 Aqueduct | Race 6 | Turf | 6 Furlongs | 3:42 ET
#1 Villi Olento
While considered an outsider, did take a big step forward in the turf starts improving spread dramatically from -11 to -2. There’s a big difference between bad efforts and non-efforts and in the case of last race, bettors should just cross out the non-effort rather than taking it into account and scoffing at the entry. Public could do the latter and let this one go off at a huge price making her worth a few bucks try as she returns to the grass with a new high-percentage barn.

Woodbine | Race 7 | All-Weather | 6 Furlongs | 4:32 ET
#4 Secret Reserve
Looks like plenty of speed in here and a lot of rivals all running very similar 4F/Finals as of late. Could be a good recipe to set up this longshot who prompted a hidden REVersal in last off consecutive NPTs and should be coming fast in stretch.

 Churchill Downs | Race 9 | Dirt | 8 Furlongs | 4:55 ET
#2 West Saratoga
Great conditioning campaign of gearing up over each monthly start into an NPT/DTOP before being well-distributed first time at a mile to trigger a SOFT win and REV at the same time. 
#3 Union Roll
Lacks experience but boasts the professionalism to be only runner that debuted a COMP indicating natural talent for handling more distance today.

 Gulfstream Park | Race 9 | Dirt | 8 Furlongs | 5:00 ET
#2 Cross Haste
Last looks like a dud but it was a sudden NPT and would have been a 4F Figure advantage against today’s group. Can settle into this stretchout off that conditioning pattern and show best for barn that liked what they saw enough to get him back to a protected race today.