Saratoga Saturday

Race 2 | Dirt | 6 Furlongs | $62.5k AOC 3+ 

#1 My Harbors Dream 
Claimed out west and a winner first time out east prompting an 84/74h NPT for new barn. Slow maintenance works might suggest barn is perfectly happy with current form and there’s nothing to work on in the mornings. Will likely have a win bet here.

#3 Joey Freshwater 
Re-entered to this softer spot from yesterday’s Grade II Amsterdam, hot barn will experiment with blinkers. 

#4 Bold Journey 
Pretty forward-spent last year, he’s come into his own and has been much more compressed as of late running well on both dirt and turf. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him go off as favorite and certainly is one to fear in the lane here.

#5 Osbourne 
Tight compression for a sprinter across the running lines with dirt spreads closer to 0 than these others. 2/1 would be tough to accept though as he’ll need a set-up and has a history of coming up short with the only win in the last couple years coming when catching a field that allowed him to be more forwardly-placed than usual.

#6 Scocciatore
Liked getting back to a fast track after a couple sloppy spins prompting a 79h/73 CPT, one of his better running lines in a while so could be feeling good now. Would typically like to see this type of runner come back quicker than this though as that positive conditioning can wear off.
*Game winner in stretch off the CPT paying $12.40

#7 Floki’s Flight
Habitual pacesetter and winner but typically goes for longer contests that feature softer paces than what we might see here. Risks being wide if he doesn’t fire out as well. I know, I know, leave speed out at your own risk but not sure I’m sold on the shipper.

Race 3 | Turf | 5.5 Furlongs | $35k Clm NW2 3+

Could be a lot of chances here but I think the most logical stand to take in this mix is a win bet with #3 Hatch. He should be able to get out forwardly-placed from this post off best Last 4F Figure of field. Was caught in last at Belmont but perhaps the tighter turn of this oval will help him get a better slingshot away from rivals into the stretch if he indeed makes the front. Must use.
*Given absolutely no chance here stymied throughout the entire stretch behind a wall of horses when he wanted to run. Good stable horse to look for a bet-back next time.

Race 4 | Dirt | 6 Furlongs | $40k MCL F&M 3+

Pretty simple standout here with #2 Best Coast owning the PLUN pattern off an 84/65. This pattern identifies geared up horses that blow out on debut and don’t finish up honestly. Expect a much more evenly-distributed try this time. Barn also boasts a big uptick in Win % for 2^nd timers vs 1^st timers.
Made a pressured lead but no match for a runaway winner in stretch settling for 3rd.

#3 Mooney Mooney
While technically a NEG on debut, runner has been compressed enough through first two outings to look more professional than these other claimers. Switches to hot, hot barn today and would be surprised if she isn’t challenging for at least a piece at the wire.

Race 5 | Dirt | 7 Furlongs | $62.5k AOC F&M 3+

Skippable race as I could see any of these with a chance. Half of entrants can use early speed as a weapon here and the other half have late speed to come on. Several returning from long lay-offs also add an element of unpredictability here. Some assessment of the post parade and odds board closer to post time needed to consider a wager.

#1 Born Dapper 
Never seen a fast main track yet so who knows, longshot could like and fire on heels of a blowout bullet work 2 morning spins back.

#2 Tizzy In The Sky 
Couple wins under belt now going longer but should like this spot off the break just missing at this track and distance with a nicely compressed 70h/70h REV running line as a maiden.

#3 Bustin Bay 
Enjoying tons of recent success going longer and now interesting to see hot barn set her down for shorter here. Any runner from this barn is a threat right now so anything around this ML would be pretty tempting.
#1, #2, #3 all scratched.

#4 Ontheonesandtwos 
When things finally came together prompting a compressed 75/76 victory after being more forward spent previously, it’s disappointing she didn’t race on and instead we’re now getting first look in over a year. Possible early speed threat.

#5 You Look Cold 
Another one with good compression for a sprinter but the 72/74 rates a notch below what some others have done at same configuration. Price looks short for me.

#6 Sterling Silver 
Nice improvement across the recent running lines culminating in a 76/75 in last which makes her a solid threat in here.
$6.40 winner

#7 Good Sam
NPT on season debut leaves room to see likely improvement here 2^nd out. Good one to check how the clocker reports grade her coming out of that race.
2nd as post-time-favorite.

Race 6 | Turf | 8.5 Furlongs | $88k MSW NY F&M 3+

#6 Starts Now 
Could be quickly coming into her own here off the powerful TDL pattern where she flashed a good amount more late acceleration than her rivals. Draws Irad which will draw money but may still hold a decent odds offering if the day is still dry and field remains full.
It rained leading into race which aided a rival setting a rank pace to hold on for an upset. Came on the best of them for 2nd and likely would have caught rival if conditions had remained dry.

#10 She’s A Natural
Her slow starts and resulting need to go wide are off-putting, however, price could be nice enough to draw consideration given she has similar Final Figures to many of today’s rivals.

#1A Foxy Cara
Could become deserving favorite off the NPT if washed onto the main track.

Race 7 | Dirt | 6.5 Furlongs | $136k MSW 2YOs

The 3 experienced runners triggered NEGs so likely looking to the debut runners here.

#4 Dornoch 
Expect this one to be well bet off a blowout bullet work while also having family bragging rights as full brother to this year’s Kentucky Derby winner Mage. Will be interesting to see what the probables look like in this one possibly offering a lot of value if upset assuming he’s as popular as I think he’ll be.

#5 Private Desire 
Seems to have some speed and is out of Constitution which is a plus. Best foals typically come early and this is first one for dam so worth a look on the track if double-digits.

#6 Drum Roll Please
First foal from dam that won on all three surfaces, this $250k purchase goes for a trainer/owner combo that simply does not send out anything but quality. Certain contender in my mind.

#10 Act Of Mutiny
Whole lot of winning from siblings and if no one draws in, the far outside can be a great spot for a first timer to be as they can get their stride going out in the clear rather than being crowded between horses which they aren’t used to yet.

Race 8 | Dirt | 6 Furlongs | GI A.G. Vanderbilt Hcp 3+

#1 Gun it
Gets the call up the class ladder here for hot barn off a nice 79h/75 SOFT victory indicating runner has more to give. Drew a tough field but 10/1+ looks a decent price for runner that may be sitting on peak try.

#3 Awesome Aaron 
Tempting to give a look at first glance with big odds off massive NPTs as we don’t see 4F Figures over 90 all that often. I’ve seen some good winners off big NPTs at Ellis BUT when they stay home to run back. Those runners have struggled a bit to reproduce that form when shipping out to other ovals. It’s also a pretty optimistic jump to go AOC to Grade I.

#4 Elite Power 
Boasts a 6-race win streak while also ultra impressive to see runner exhibit mathematically negative dirt spreads and being able to run down any field faced. Nothing surprising about an odds-on ML here, but you have to think sooner or later, his running style could allow a brave rival with a step on him to find the wire first.

#5 Gunite
Huge ability posting 80+ Final Figures several times and his 4F Figure advantage over the favorite coupled with similar late finish ability makes him a candidate to finally show that runner an effort he can’t overcome.

#6 Dean Delivers
Will try to transfer career ceiling SOFT/NPT combo from Florida to NY while also bringing Jaramillo with him indicating he should be firing from the gate here looking to steal.  If a thunderstorm rolls through and the track goes to sloppy, his chances upgrade. Trainer/owner combo does well invading other ovals.

Race 9 | Inner Turf | 8 Furlongs | $149k Alw F&M 3+

#9 New Ginya
Elevated game to heightened Final Figures after earning her PLOW designation and has held that form well this campaign. Threat to be labelled my Top Contender here, especially if this 8/1 ML materializes.

#10 Get Your Kicks
Broke maiden first time on grass and professional enough to trigger PLOW first time against winners (An important form cycle pattern to exhibit for runners with future turf success). Drew into a tough race and Chad sends Irad elsewhere so perhaps not quite confident about today, but should see winner’s circle soon. Anytime you find a foundation of win early + PLOW early, you’re gonna end up seeing a subsequent win within the next few starts a high percentage of the time.

#11 Spungie
While the PLOW/NPT combo looks good on the sheets, patterns far removed from racing can’t be used to upgrade current condition so we’re getting a fresh slate here off the break and could be any horse. Barn is more known to make progress through racing and work runners into top form rather than firing hard under wraps off breaks. However, runner does have a consistent past of running Final Figures that can win this race so he doesn’t necessarily need to come out firing on the muscle here to figure a contender. Should probably be using in horizontals.

#13 Mariah’s Appeal 
Showed good speed and engagement on debut. Could be a tough one to run down if we go to the main track and slop would probably be a good thing.

#15 She Caught My Eye 
After a spotty record, finally strung together 2 good races and now off an NPT entered back quickly, impossible not to use this one if we go to the main track as it looks like she’s suddenly in new great form. With the other MTOs triggering NEGs, the compression this one holds is also an advantage on those 2^nd time starters barring the track isn’t super sloppy and glib at this point in the card carrying speed further than it should.

Race 10 | Dirt | 9 Furlongs | GII Jim Dandy S. 3+

#1 Disarm
Tough to overlook recent form after passing a bunch of them in the Derby, was very impressive in last pouncing on Grade III rivals even despite a soft pace on a sloppy track. Should have plenty in the tank off the SOFT win at this distance.

#2 Forte
Would-be but scratched Derby favorite adds blinkers for cut-back in distance. With tremendous staying power and large stride length, should be gaining ground late on any of these. Even though the one to beat here, there’s typically a lot more value than one would think in catching upsets in short fields. Bettors see spreading in small fields as a waste of budget and will often force themselves to single, sometimes blindly on the favorite. I may not be afraid to try and beat him using several others for value’s sake. At the least, I’ll certainly be using #1 and #3.

#3 Hit Show
Has outran others that were as hard-used as he’s been last couple so I expect another strong effort here as he wheels back to same distance as his last win. Good upset shot with tactical speed here to be in range of pacesetters but also have a step on closers.

#4 Saudi Crown
Never leave out potential lone speed is what they say and although this one is off a blowout 86/76 NPT, I find it likely he’s over-used defensively by bettors in here following that rule and I’m skeptical about his chances to steal given today’s rivals have all bested his Last 2F splits even when taken from much longer races. That said, he’ll end up much harder to fade if the track turns sloppy.

 #5 Angel Of Empire
Didn’t quite have the late kick expected of him when stretching out in the Belmont Stakes. Curious to see if that bit of a disappointing finish hurts his support at the windows today.  If that projects to be the case, could be a good use in place of Forte on 3-deep tickets as his development up to the Derby was excellent for this distance and 1 ½ miles isn’t for everyone (not me personally at least).

Race 11 | Turf | 5.5 Furlongs | $95k Alw NY F&M 3+

#1 Queens Dancer
Long bomb you probably have to throw onto some sort of ticket given the situation. If the race goes to dirt, has a chance to steal from rail on the heels of prompting a 90+ 2F Figure and 80+ 4F Figure. Even on the turf you’re still using this one due to odds. Sometimes you’ll get a runner that can’t take the stress of popping pace on dirt but then all of a sudden gets onto the more forgiving bounce of turf and decides to happily run on.
Set pace and responded when challenged in stretch to score for $28.00. Many scratches or would have been even better price.

#8 Busy Morning
Catches the eye based on back ability with a big 84/80 running line at 6F as well as an early PLOW triggered. Will be interested to see what clocker reports rate his chances to be ready to fire off the bench here.

#9 Act Of Congress
2 for 2 on the year and big year-over-year development moving last June’s 85/69 to a 85/78h this June. Would be tough to leave out for me.

#12 Sandy’s Garden
Nice foundation showing promise for the future when young but then went through a rough patch being very forward spent throughout 2022. Returned from long break to look like a whole new horse recently 2 for 2 on the year and making a nice move in dirt spread from +5h to +1. Big threat if we go to the main track.