Saratoga Picks & Analysis

Race 1 | Dirt | 5.5 Furlongs
#1 Pirate is the buzz horse as a half to Preakness winner National Treasure while #5 Arteta catches the eye off quick sales breezes and connections eager to get him on the track with only 4 published works here. Tough to take a stand with any of these in a small field lacking running lines to assess.

Race 2 | Dirt | 6 Furlongs
Value Plays’ thinks #6 Iceatude can break through the DTOP here making him Top Contender but I may look elsewhere. Ellis shippers haven’t fared well here so I can’t back a regressive form cycle pattern. #4 East Coast Girl is a good proposition looking to rebound on the NPT with an “off” Final. Not only do these type runners often figure it out and return to run much better but the nature of the move often leaves them with nice odds offered from the public. #1 Win For Gold can hold on for a share here off consistently fast 2F/4F lines and #2 Sugar Gray Leonard should be a threat in the lane with a 2-back REV last on dirt.

Race 3 | Turf | 8.5 Furlongs
#9 Hola Gata earns Top Contender designation for Value Plays off the big PLOW. However, that was last year and this one has had trouble staying on the track. Respect the positive clocker reports coming in on this one but also demand a decent price for one tougher to trust. #5 Vanished is a much more reliable pick here as the REV first time on dirt translates very well back to turf where she just missed on debut. #4 Paris Style is another than debuted to a REV meaning she could like the switch to turf and should be a good price.

Race 4 | Turf | 9 Furlongs
#2 In Italian figures to wire the field here off a 2/5 ML. If I was looking for the minor upset, #5 Whitebeam has handled the ship stateside well through 2 starts and could run on with the extra distance today while #3 Marketsegmentation is a habitual winner and the lone PLOW in here.

Race 5 | Dirt | 6 Furlongs
Nice collection of compressed horses here in what could be a good battle of similar running lines with #2 Always Charming, #8 Mariachi, and even #6 Red D G P just a notch below but right there. I’d like to catch them off guard and try #7 G Munning here who has some good speed in the back figures and should be geared up here after a long break.

Race 6 | Turf | 8 Furlongs
Competitive race but catching the eye a bit more than others would be #11 Waterville off consecutive running lines that could win this one today and #2 Solib who widened his 7F spread last out which should translate well to today’s extra panel.

Race 7 | Turf | 5.5 Furlongs
#5 Lady Milagro comes in sporting very fast 4F Turf Figures, something that could be aided by the recent rains and help her chances to wire them should indeed make the front. Turf on the softer side often favors speed as the closers can’t get the typical friction to accelerate at full ability come stretch time. This same angle would make #3 Bowl Of Cherries one to watch. Her pace figures have been increasing on dirt and often runners are able to translate speed from dirt to turf very well.

Race 8 | Dirt | 7 Furlongs
#8 Foxy Cara stands out here on best 4F/Final of the experienced ones while also being one of only 2 experienced runners without a regressive DTOP or NEG designation. Door should be plenty open here for a firster to score, #6 Island Rose and #9 Neigh Jude both have positive clocker reports. Nothing in particular stands out on #1 Embraceable Girl but this is the type of field you want to have the firster that everyone ignores thrown onto your horizontal bets.

Race 9 | Turf | 8 Furlongs
#8 Casa Creed looks like the one to beat as no one in here sports consistent 80+ Final Figures like he does. Also catching the eye, TDL is a powerful turf pattern that doesn’t show up all that often and we actually get 2 runners in here. Watch out for #6 Filo Di Arianna and #7 Anaconda late.

Race 10 | Dirt | 6 Furlongs
#9 Gold Sweep will be the heavily backed single in here and for good reason off a running line that towers this field. The two positive form cycle patterns on the page include #6 Ramming Speed looking to translate an NPT from synthetic to dirt and #7 Triple Trea sporting the COMP, a professional look for a young runner.

Race 11 | Turf | 5.5 Furlongs
#2 Beer Run has the opportunity to get first jump here with enough compression to last but may end up too short of a price with plenty of chances on the flipside to get buried in the field as well. Will be watching the board. #9 Two Minutes Apart a bit slow on the running lines but those are juvenile numbers that should see a big uptick today and figures to have a solid foundation for kicking off the sophomore campaign after posting a PLOW in third start. Nice collection of firsters in here to consider further as well including #1A Schnittker for Ward, #5 Nickel Nickel for Gargan, and #10 Metallurgic for Maker