Santa Anita Sunday

*Racing has been cancelled for the day at Santa Anita Park.  They'll be back tomorrow for a Monday card.*

Late Pick 5 (Races 4-8) Suggested WagersApproach 1 Base $2 - 3 / 1,6 / 7 / 2 / 3,4,5,7,8 - $10Singling the Leg 4 odds-on favorite, we don’t want to chase prices hoping to make the sequence pay okay by tossing in longshots here and there at $0.50 base.  Instead, increase your base bet amount and keep remaining legs logical.  Can add to Legs 1, 2, or 3 as you wish here to hit a $60 budget.  For a more aggressive approach, toss 5 & 7 from last leg which likely represents the lowest Late Double payoffs and add bigger prices there or elsewhere.Approach 2  Base $0.50 - 3 / 1,6 / 4,5,7 / 4,7 / ALL - $48Fading the Leg 4 odds-on favorite, we'll go min base bet while taking a stand in more confident legs and spreading for coverage in less confident legs.

Race 1 | Dirt | 6 Furlongs | $32k Claiming Older

#3 As Amatter Of Fact In a contest for older, he’s the lightest raced of the group so the consecutive NPTs coming in may have room for more potential than usual here.  Expect some improvement off the 78.3 / 70.8 in last.  The rivals top out in the 72-73 Final Figure range but have shown some regressions since hitting those marks. 

#1 Santos To Wilson Working well off the break, can be geared up here and run back to the 77.5 / 71.2 DPT buried in last campaign.

Race 2 | Dirt | 5.5 Furlongs | $20k Claiming 3YOs

#2 Midnight Lightning Everyone in here gets first time Lasix but I’m keying in on this one as the potential to be most helped by it.  Off an 81.8 / 64.3 at LRC, he could make the front here from the rail and with better energy distribution, sustain the few extra Final Figure points he needs to spring the minor “upset” if you’ll accept that label in this short field.

#5 Mentirosa Class of the small field figures to be odds-on while stringing together the longest campaign of the field.  With a DTOP in last, this could be a spot for regression leaving an opportunity open for another.

Race 3 | Dirt | 6 Furlongs | $67k Maiden Special 3YO Fillies

#6 Doinitthehardway Many talk about lone pace but in this case, we may have a lone sustainer (of the experienced runners at least).  That’s not to say she’ll be far back, but that she’s exhibited the best stretch splits thus far.  She’s been durable enough to be stringing together 5 races including a Grade I try while facing greener rivals.

#5 Wudi NEG runners are typically vulnerable to COMP runners but in this case, we have none of those threats and she stacks up well here off a 78 / 71 matching the gate speed of #1 but with much better finishing ability.

#2 Coffee In Bed Always give consideration to lone debut runners.  After all, the one thing they don’t have everyone else already does is a losing record.  Siblings seemed to prefer more distance and with a slower looking work tab, the $500k purchase could feature tactics meant to pick up pieces as the stablemate #1 should push the early pace here.

Race 4 | Dirt | 8 Furlongs | $16k Claiming Older F&M

#3 Awesome Pamela The incremental development in the dirt spread (4F minus Final) stands out here.  Stringing together the last 4 routes, we get +3.5 to +2.1 to -4.6 to -2.2.  On one hand, runner is displaying much stronger 4F Pace than in previous campaigns but also more recently is back to running mathematically negative dirt spreads.  Should be in prime condition for a good effort today.  Value Plays algorithm internally lists her chances at 32% making her a Win Bet at 2/1 or better.

#5 Chao Mar Listed as an NPT Top Contender here for an upset chance by Value Plays algorithm.  However, what gives me pause is she’s been quite slow for a long time and more of a runner that gets going late after there’s too much left to do.  Typically, this NPT could be a nice sign of new and exciting form coming, but the sudden out-of-the-blue NPT occurring on her first wet fast rated track has me wondering if that aided her quite a bit in triggering that pattern.

Race 5 | Dirt | 6 Furlongs | $67k Maiden Special Older SB F&M

#6 Whimsical Heir Tracked in a 3-horse stack last out and looked good negotiating the turn for the first time in competition.  Draws clear to the outside again and is a threat in the lane here if no one gets away from them early.

#1 A Little Bit Crazy Threat on the inside off the 70 / 67 and previously a 77 / 68h on this track to get clear into the turn and slingshot for an advantage when the stretch run starts.

#8 Kiss My Kat She was geared up in only start as juvenile to an 81.7 / 65.7 PLUN, a pattern that can signal a less than honest effort featuring a ton of speed with a weakened gallop out in stretch.  These are usually good bet-backs for 2nd time starters.  However, we’re well over a year removed from that angle as she missed her entire sophomore season and could now be any horse.  Multiple workouts have had her fail to switch leads and with bullet works, it may be likely we’ll see the same geared up runner we seen back in ’21 going fast for a bit but failing to possess the stamina to threaten throughout.

Race 6 | Dirt | 7 Furlongs | $32 Claiming Older F&M

Suggested WagersWin Bet on #7 at 4/1 or better.Consider mixing #5 into the exotics expecting a fair price will be offered.Perhaps [Exacta 7 – 5] & [Trifecta 7 – ALL – 5]

#7 La V. Should be in good condition here if holding the form of last 3 spins which included 2 NPTs on dirt and a nicely compressed turf try.  One knock would be some lack of recency 71 days off that cycle of good races but still appears she’ll offer nice enough price to back her holding favorable condition through the break and improving here enough to best the top contenders.  There’s a lot of compression in this race so could serve her best to go on with it early here.

#5 Del Mar Drama Eligible to improve 2nd off the break and exiting her best year of career, the 70h / 67h does represent a running line that needs improvement to be competitive today.  But it was good to see her not too geared up off the break and putting up respectable speed while staying professional in energy distribution at just a +3 dirt spread.  Look for her in the lane if she gets a decent race flow today.  

#4 Little Rachel I can respect she’s been developing more even energy distribution recently going +8 to +4 to +1 so she could be another strong here late.  The catch might be if she goes off as favorite, we’ve got other threats that want to see the same type of race develop at much better prices.  She’s also seen her Final Figures slip a few points lately.  There’s also the issue of being claimed to another barn where it’s unsure if a new training regimen is a threat to throw off her current trajectory.

#6 Miss Fia Might be one to consider based on back ability with a local spin in May coming in at a really solid 82h/74.  However, keep in mind choosing representative pacelines can be dangerous because they measure a runner’s ability during a different condition and cycle in their career.  What’s more important than previous ability is assessing today’s possible condition.  We’ve got an older 7-year old that’s struggled to piece together more than 2 races in some time off the break for a 3% trainer so tread lightly and only use if she looks good on track, the price is right, and your ticket structure allows to go deeper.

Race 7 | Dirt | 7 Furlongs | $200k GIII Santa Ynez S. 3YO Fillies

#7 Ice Dancing Some potential here setting back down to one turn after sustaining through a route in 74h/72.  Her previous sprint try in 2nd career race featured some speed at 80h/66 to build on here.  The route featured an internal 6F Figure of 67.2 so she actually beat her previous Final Figure at the sprint distance and did so while finishing up an extra 2 panels to win at a mile. 

#4 Huntingcoco Tough to trust after a couple duds but if she’s floating up near double digits here, you almost have to be using her in case she’s recovered and ready to run back to that impressive debut of 79h/72h which is the best running line of this group.  “Bests” system is discussed in “Blinkers Off” eBook on the PF web site.

#2 Justique The class of the race is the most compressed off a tight 73/71.  She’ll be looking to rate and kick into gear to pass who’s left in stretch.  It does appear the race sets up well with everyone your typical dirt runner being more forward spent.  You have to make a decision here on whether to single the chalk or look to beat and spread elsewhere.  It’s bad practice to use this one defensively then start adding on more runners hoping for the upset.  Do one or the other.

#3 Lily Poo Pretty Good progression so far working a 72h/68 to 76/70 to 76/71h in last.  Unsure if the barn switch will help or hurt that incremental progress.  New barn is 0 for 10 (with only 2 ITM) on trainer switches (private or auction purchases like this one, not claims) in graded stakes.  Can use if you’re on the side of fading the favorite and ticket allows going this deep.

#6 Parody The slop may have aided in carrying her on debut to a 77/70 NEG to which she regressed to a forward-spent 79/65 NPT.  There’s a number of rivals here that can match her 4F Pace so I’m inclined not to trust her late here despite Value Plays’ menu listing her as the Top Contender.

Race 8 | Dirt | $67k Maiden Special SB 3YOs

#8 Logon To Win Disgraced by bettors on debut at 98/1, was forced into a hot pace triggering a PLUN pattern at 90/70.  LRC figures can often come up a little inflated (across all platforms, not just PF.  I’ve heard other prominent figuremakers complain about LRC many times).  Even so, this group looks less talented than last so if none of today’s rivals push early like last group did, runner stands a chance to make the lead and perhaps gets braver today late at a big price.

#4 Montana Looks to break through a 73/66 DTOP here.  Lightly-raced runners are more eligible to sustain DTOPs without regression as they are still in development and haven’t yet established a ceiling.  Runner gets Lasix and will try a new rider possibly a combo to help this runner display a little better energy distribution and be stronger late.

#5 Rhythem On Stage One of the contenders here off the ultimate equipment change.  72h/66h is competitive with some others in here so becomes a price fade if going off favorite.  Assuming runner was gelded day after last race, the 34 days recovery time would rank just out of what is said to be optimal (40-60 days) but not a deal breaker.  Has looked fine in morning works.

#7 Yo Time Disgraced chalk on debut and with a lesser name attached, public would scoff.  However, he’ll get some backing here with trainer that almost doubles Win % in 2nd career starts compared to debut starts.  Within range of those that ran better previously off a 70/64h.

#3 Clouseau Never know with so many changes (Lasix, blinkers off, turf to dirt, route to sprint) if a runner might wake up but would definitely want some good odds here to include.  Barn in this spot (turf to dirt in maiden special) is 1/8 with only winner well-placed as a 4/5 shot.

#6 Thirsty Pair of full siblings haven’t had overly successful careers (1/21 for $10k and 4/23 for $50k).  You do like to see a drill at today’s distance in the work tab.  Might be nothing, but 3 gate works coming in gives a little nervousness this one hasn’t been totally professional from the gate.  Glancing through Miller’s past debut winners, there were only a handful given this many gate works.