Santa Anita Picks & Analysis

Race 1 | Turf | 8 Furlongs | $50k SOC
#1 Liberal (IRE) suddenly showing increased tactical speed could be good here from the rail. Could see him end up in a stretch duel with #3 Eastern Ocean.

Race 2 | Dirt | 8 Furlongs | $20k AOC
Feels like #1 vs #6 and not sure there’ll be value to do any betting in race.

Race 3 | Dirt | 6 Furlongs | $20k Clm
#5 Relaxed Artist was a turfer and has brought the education of compression to the main track now. Probably need to throw #4 Trusty Rusty underneath him on some tickets trying to get the big odds NPT in the money.

Race 4 | Dirt | 5.5 Furlongs | $50k Clm
#4 Red Falcon while technically being pegged as a NEG runner, was very close to being a PLUN instead off the 80/65. I find it very encouraging the O’Neill barn was interested before he even hit the track and claimed on debut. One blowout bullet work and he’s back entered as my top pick.
Win Bet 4
Also have to use #5 Barton Strong with the coveted lone COMP tag in here and #7 Cribbage Board who is quickly on the uptick off an NPT here and might offer double-digit odds.
Exacta Box 4 w 5,7 

Race 5 | Turf | 8 Furlongs | $50k OC
#2 Tiergarten will be my stand-out top pick here feeling good after seeing form shoot up since triggering her PLOW pattern. Hoping to get 7/2 or so to actually bet as there’s a few sneaky entries in here that could upset me

Race 6 | Dirt | 6 Furlongs | $32k SOC
Whole lot of forward-spent types in here seems like it could be a race set up to break down and let compression come through late. #6 Signora Minister will likely be ready to make a run now back with Miller although I would much prefer to see #7 Crimson Rose come flying instead for Knapp. Runner has good natural speed but also plenty of experience being taught to ration some as a turf campaigner this year before romping last out on the switch to main track.

#5 Bella Renella makes for a good defensive add to horizontals. At times, you’ll see races you think should be contested early but because trainers and jockeys can read a program too, sometimes the result is too many decide to back off and they end up letting one run free instead. In that scenario, #5 is my best guess to take advantage.

 Race 7 | Downhill Turf | 6.5 Furlongs | $80 OC
Possible longshot try here with #7 Vantastic after the 2-back TDL and bigger turf spreads at this configuration than others. Needs a set-up and trip so demand double-digit odds to try. What we’ll need is a contested pace so #3 Noble Reflection who set the track record in April doesn’t get away. #5 I’m A Gambler has a good feel to him for contention after running well first time on this downhill and now gets to experiment with 1^st Lasix and 1^st blinkers. I’ve always liked #2 Zoffarelli as a good trying horse although needing best against these and #8 Daniel’s Magic isn’t out of exotics possibility for the big price considering the decent compression out of last.

I’ll likely be playing some Tris or Supers in a way that covers 3 different scenarios (#3 wires / #5 bests field / breakdown for #7 on top) while also wanting longshot #2 or #8 sneaking in there. Ticket grouping might look something like this to start:
3 / 2,5,7,8 / 2,5,7,8 / 2,5,7,8 = $12 for $0.50 Super
5 / 2,7,8 / 2,7,8 = $6 for $1 Tri
5 / 3 / 2,7,8 / 2,7,8 = $6 for $1 Super
7 / 5 / 2,8 = $2 for $1 Tri
7 / 2,8 / 5 = $2 for $1 Tri
7 / 2,8 / ALL = $6 for $0.50 Tri
7 / ALL / 2,8 = $6 for $0.50 Tri

Race 8 | Dirt | 6.5 Furlongs | $61k MSW
Not likely to bet this race unless the odds board suddenly forces me to like something value-wise. Working with limited data but #8 Pura Vida might get the slight nod being closest to COMP on debut of the experienced ones while also coming off an NPT. I also like experienced maidens who are improving energy distribution a little more when they’ll be racing clear on the outside ready to pounce if the rivals all expend too early or encounter trouble. #1 Safa might get a good share of public’s action after a quick uptick prompting a stout DTOP in last. Chances look good enough not to blame them but runner is plenty vulnerable enough I don’t want a favorite in this race. #5 and #7 both sporting good work reports and connections for debut and wouldn’t be surprised if either out-classed this group. #3 Miss Miche Lada off a NEG pattern so best hope is probably to get clear and try to steal race.

Race 9 | Turf | 8 Furlongs | $61k MSW
Another tough maiden race where it’s hard to opine if I’ll be betting or not. #1 Guy Named Joe has a lot of good things going with a COMP debut which translates well to turf and a turf debut that featured good figures compared to today’s rivals. Also liked he’s proven he can go between horses which lessens worries about the inside spot. #4 Maximum Capacity could be a “steal the race” type here getting blinkers after an NPT on dirt and I could see myself pulling the trigger for a few bucks if odds are right. #5 Dealer’s Special appears to have enough win chance after a solid debut running line to consider 10/1 plenty fair if that ML holds. Unsure if #6 Miracle Mark will relish or hate the grass but does look scary as a contender off good-looking works while being a half-sibling to champion Whitmore. #8 Ambiguous could surprise late if things fall apart holding a competitive turf final figure with the biggest turf spread of field. #10 Lake Superior makes a logical switch back to turf and could factor if drawing in although there’s plenty of other options if he gets too much window support.  I also give some positive consideration to #11 Gold Foot’s angle at a big price of possibly appreciating the more gradual flow of two turns rather than scrapping in sprints.

#2 Sine Qua Non – I really don’t see anything likable BUT it does trigger one of my golden rules. Whenever there is a lone FTS in a maiden race, it’s almost always a must use in horizontals. Quite simply, every experienced runner in a maiden race is already a proven loser while the chance is always there the lone FTS is entered light for ability. Only costs you 1 extra combo whenever the situation arises and over time you’ll find this rule giving you a $50 horse here and there.