Santa Anita Opening Day

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Race 1 | Turf | 8 Furlongs

#3 I’m A Gambler (IRE)

Features durability already with 24 spins under belt as a sophomore, even pushed so far as to race two days in a row at Goodwood in August. Sports some big international figures coming in here and may like the extra traction that comes with firmer, faster ground in the States.

#7 Sumter

Rates a serious threat to be sling-shotting the turn clear of everyone and trying to hold on.

#1 Balnikhov

Superior late kick here and figures to draw favoritism but vulnerable to this trip as a flat mile on this course typically feels more like a sprint than a route.

Race 2 | Dirt | 8 Furlongs

Tough race to like. Everyone in here has a reason to wake up while also offering question marks that could prompt failure.

#6 Palagio

Has the foundation to be top-rated hope in here if able to draw a line through last and get back to condition of earlier this summer.

#1 Princip

Logical contender off a COMP/NPT combo and stringing together 3 races to begin career.

#5 Migration

Was handled and ran like a turf horse in last although trying main track. Had looks of a great prep race for this one to go back to turf and I’ll add to Stable Watch on that angle for a bet later. Still, could pick up pieces today even on main track if front falls apart.

Race 3 | Turf | 9 Furlongs

#6 Prince Abama (IRE)

Figures to get a good set-up here off the PLOW stalking several speed types. An upset is not out of the question for the big prices #1, #4, and #7 if this one can’t pick up the pieces.

#2 Masteroffoxhounds

Should be well-supported in the win pool and worth beating likely being challenged early today and having to sustain off a blowout 85/85 running line last out.

#3 Dicey Mo Chara (GB)

Winner off lay-off and now deep in campaign as the most raced runner of 2022 in this field. Last win came off the lay-off against optional claimers with many in here having run better than that line since. Looks like an underlay if supported down to the 3/1 ML.

Race 4 | Dirt | 6 Furlongs

Baffert unveils #3 Faustin here who brings some hype with him. The trainer/owner combo here is especially serious with 8 of 9 debut runners hitting the exacta. I expect this one to take the money and we’ll know we’re on the right track when that happens. If he’s unusually cold (3/1 or better) on the board, there’s probably a good reason.

#4 Sonoran 

Given Johnny V and a slightly better work tab matched with stablemate #7 Worcester in the morning recently.

Race 5 | Turf | 8 Furlongs

Start of the Mid-Pick 4 here and the spot on the card where I’m inclined to actually begin wagering.

#10 Smart Code

With blinkers on for some focus plus this field projected to set easier earlier fractions than what he seen in last, I’m looking for him to be closer today and more in range when the stretch burst begins. Biggest turf spread out of this field’s running lines with a competitive Final Figure to pair.

#2 Hawker

Trouble late in last and now looks for a re-do on the surface switch after starting career with good conditioning on a COMP/NPT combo on main.

Race 6 | Dirt | 8.5 Furlongs

Good speed from the inside featured here which could set things up well for the favorite #6 Country Grammer, but on the flipside, offers the chance for a “speed of the speed” type to get away with the steal. Rider up is well-respected but it’s also first day on the job here outside some BC visits through the years. This spot figures to be a launching point for next campaign into bigger races so can’t imagine runner will be asked to over-exert here if left with a lot to do. I like trying to beat him here.

#5 Stilleto Boy

Tailed off in last campaign but now returns fresh with the back ability to fire for an upset featuring a 76h/77 running line earlier in the year on this track that dusts others.

#4 Hudson Ridge

Features a “switch and surround” angle with improved turf form off a lay-off sandwiching a DPT in last campaign. New and exciting main track form here is a real possibility.

Race 7 | Downhill Turf | 6.5 Furlongs

#8 Big Beauty

No match for eventual winner in several giving an over-stated look of “seconditis” in the PPs. When tight with rivals, however, has shown ability to engage and respond tough. Previous experience on the downhill course a plus for this one over others and sheets show incremental progress over course of career. Good spot to break out back to winning ways.

#2 Smiling Molly

A bit hard-used with speed when trying this downhill course 2-back. Returned to 5-panel Del Mar sprint in last she had previously been at to show much improvement with tighter turf spread at -4h from -6h and -9 previously while also prompting best Final Figure of those 3 mentioned sprints. Positive trajectory into today gives her the look of a live price.

#7 Eleuthera

Nice work tab for return and for what it’s worth, Mario lands here after being regular for soft entry of #7 and #9. Trying downhill course for first time off lay-off possible obstacle to see best of current condition though. Heavy consideration with odds but less interested if bet down off this 6/1 ML.

Race 8 | Dirt | 7 Furlongs

#8 Awake At Midnyte

Features past pacelines that can win today and the price should be right to try on the back ability alone. Sophomore has already proven she can run to potential when fresh with a COMP debut victory and easy win off break last time at one turn. You have to figure she’s going to be a huge price here considering the lineup of today’s rivals’ connections.

#6 Fun To Dream

Progressing in the energy distribution department, the dirt spreads last three sprints have gone +9 to +5h to -2. This would seem to indicate runner is heading in a direction to have a lot of continued success at two turns. As for today, should still be a big threat in the lane as a favorable race flow looks plenty gettable.

#5 Ain’t Easy

The clockers are calling that last 6F workout a big move and D’Amato can seem to have them wake up as he feels. The type of horse you’re afraid of here and projects likely you could get a very fair price with 4 Baffert entries set to suck up a lot of support, especially if BB is having a day up to this point.

#1 Under The Stars

Has the ability to win based on that back line of 82/75 here being best of field for 7 panels. Question marks include some repeated bad behavior in and out of the starting gate leaving her at big risk of being buried early. At least if she’s delegated to having to rate behind cover here, the right rider for the situation gets back aboard.

#2 Hot Peppers

She’s a habitual winner on two previous circuits and now invades the west coast. The 4 straight NPT Patterns make her an enticing inclusion for those spreading around in this race. Outside of that strategy though, she looks up against it when narrowing opinions. Off 4 months, the NPTs are now considered a past campaign that can’t figure to be counted on for assessing current condition. The goal is to try and steal a race to boost her broodmare resume, and I’m not sure the trainer’s quote “We just have to get lucky” is the most encouraging remark. There’s plenty of other speed signed on so her likely tactics here could be hard-challenged. She’s been twice scratched before today looking to return from a bruise after stepping on a stone a couple months back.

#3 Ganadora

Cost a cool million and looks to muddle the pace. Hasn’t been one to string races too close together and has limited experience with traffic so there’s a question as to what happens if squeezed or crashed on with plenty of other gate speed in field. As good a chance of any to be “the speed of the speed” threat but expectations low the price will be right for me with so many options in here for that angle.

#4 Midnight Memories

She was geared up on debut but saw velocities fall in subsequent sprint tries from there only to show best form going two turns. She’s now looking to set back down to a sprint off a lay-off with turnback figures out of the routes that don’t hold an advantage on what others in here have done and projects to be a vulnerable favorite or co-favorite.

Race 9 | Turf | 9 Furlongs

#3 Ballet Dancing

Turf spreads get predictably larger as distance increases. Ranks very well in this field for stretch acceleration at this trip.

#7 Myfavoritedaughter

Needs to keep moving forward but good look off the claim to prompt correct trajectory popping a turf spread of +12 after being consistently much more forward spent with previous barn.

#14 Annaghlasa (IRE)

Potential to send and steal even at distance and outside post if drawing in.

#4 Barrister’s Ride

Has prompted competitive turf spreads and Final Figures to these rivals at the shorter trips so worthy of consideration at big price although shorter would be preferred.

Race 10 | Dirt | 7 Furlongs

#6 Taiba

Owner of three straight 80+ Final Figures, no rival here has hit that mark once. He’ll have to cut back to one turn for first time in a bit but still stands to deserve respect as a good favorite here. If you ignore, you can make a case for many so the value in this race appears to be singling in on this one rather than over-spending to cover the many second-up chances hoping for an upset. Most logical though rates to be #4 Nakatomi who sported superior compression compared to others sprinting at 76h/76 last out and while featuring a nice resume of getting by targets in stretch.

Race 11 | Downhill Turf | 10 Furlongs

#6 Mise En Scene (GB)

Ran well for her chances in a solid edition of the BC F&M Turf while prompting the best Top Final Figure of this field in only second stateside chance. Stays over here and now gets to try easier as Value Plays’ algorithm’s Top Contender off a PLOW Pattern.

#11 School Dance

Plenty happy with the move, she comes in 2 for 2 in SoCal while pushing off a PLOW which could translate well to the added distance.