Santa Anita Mandatory Pick 6

Edit for Results:R5: #4 Stay In The Game offered a better price than expected.R6: #1 Big Summer held strong up front as #5 Eddie's New Dream tried to eat away late.R7: #1 Thirsty John saved ground throughout to last.R8: #3 Grazed My Heart with the tightest of photo finishes over #8 Sell The Dream.R9: #8 Leyas Candy straight beat us here much the best with #5 Donner Lake taking silver.R10: #4 Coalinga Road gets it done in stretch. 4 / 1 / 1 / 3 / 8 / 4 paid $2,429.74

Race 5 | Dirt | 6 Furlongs | $50k Mdn Clm SB 3YOs

#7 Charbonneau Geared up with a big forward-spent NPT off the break at 86h/60.  With that out of his system, just comes down to being able to run a more relaxed race here.  Gets first time Lasix, holds a weight break with the bug, and takes the ultimate drop.

#1 Doradus While technically still a NEG on debut, he was the closest of this field to having a COMP designation in their debuts missing by a couple points.  Runner was under some early urging and still showed nice staying power down the lane.  I believe he’ll show improvement today.

#4 Stay In The Game ($8.80)Must work through a DTOP here as a long-time maiden but there’s been some small progression in better energy distribution lately.  Should be in contention but prefer better odds than projected 2nd favorite.

#6 King Zog Can understand being marked for favoritism on ML based on early speed as many maiden claiming races do feature winners that just plain won’t pass or lack the energy distribution to out-sustain a rival with a jump so first to the front does often win here.  However, runner is already several times a failure with lead at or around this level.  Also seems to lack development as last out’s running line mirrors what he put up on debut.

If spreading against the Top 2 likely odds getters #4 and #6, consider adding the #2, #3, and #5 all off good workout grades here with upside.

Race 6 | Downhill Turf | 6.5 Furlongs | $150k Sunshine Millions F&M Turf Sprint

#1 Big Summer ($9.80)Big running line as a 84.7 / 80.1 winner last time on downhill and looks to be holding great condition moving back after a win on dirt and an NPT on tapeta.  Might offer a ton of value if willing to take a stand here as there will be a lot of #3 and #5 fans in this race.

#5 Eddie’s New Dream Ran down a graded stakes winner last time on downhill and could maybe figure to end up favorite on the board here.  They keep wanting her to go longer but she seems to belong more at this trip.

#8 Sunshine Babe Posted a positive turf spread in last for first time in a while so form could be trending upwards for an improvement here.  Ran a good stretch last time on downhill despite some early trouble so with improvement rates a longshot look today.

#3 Alice Marble Tough runner in this spot a year ago often part of the pace while also around to duel in stretch all three spins.

#2 La Deuxieme Etoile Recent peaking in route form could give her some reason to compete against tougher here in stretch after going gate to wire on downhill in last.

Race 7 | Dirt | 8.5 Furlongs | $200k California Cup Derby

#1 Stay Thirsty ($6.60)With a just a super sprint debut win on resume, this is a confident move to be going two turns off the long break for 2nd time starter.  Have to believe there’s talent there and workout tab and pedigree would back that up.

#7 Geezer Was trending the right way for distance when slowly relaxing 4F Pace while bumping up Final Figures in 3 straight winning sprints.  Dueled and weakened on the stretchout but now gets a second chance to handle the distance better based on foundation before last.

#2 Passarando Could get a favorable set-up in a race featuring rivals with sprint speed that are still figuring out how to distribute their energy over 8+ furlongs.  Lone pace is popular but on the flipside of that angle, this one looks like lone compression so if you’re badly in need of a race to single on, maybe look at this guy.

Race 8 | Turf | 8 Furlongs | $200k California Cup Oaks

#8 Sell The Dream Runner looks like a good favorite coming off the favorable PLOW pattern while owning the best Last and Lifetime Top Final Figures of field.  Might be a popular single amongst bettors here which I can understand.  Only knock would be there’s a lot of runners with positive form cycle patterns coming in here meaning a lot of chances for someone to fire and run a peak performance making for a lot of value in this race if you can find the upset.  Let’s run through the field and reasons why each might be able to win.

#1 Carole Lombard Runners’ first time against winners is overall a low-percentage winning spot.  However, it’s also an often under-bet spot as these types win much more than their odds suggest they should.  Regular rider of both this one and #9 lands with this one.

#2 Golden Again Never been on grass so could always like it and just wake up but I’m skeptical.  Siblings haven’t done much with turf and energy distribution in dirt resume doesn’t show any trends toward wanting a switch.

#3 Grazed My Heart ($13.80)Needs improvement first time against winners on turf but has received positive workout grades and comes off a multi-surface PLOW/REV pattern combo.

#4 Cholly NPT dirt to turf can be a nice spot for longshots but you typically want a foundation to run back to on that conditioning angle.  Tries two turns for the first time and was a bit disappointing in lone turf try so there’s obstacles.

#6 Loyal To A Fault Throw out the wet fast try and he’s off an improved running line that resulted from triggering the PLOW pattern.  Can be in first flight here and have a chance to get first kick at the stretch but must watch out late as most of this field has much better turf spreads (late acceleration).

#7 Quickly Park It Can improve with a cleaner trip than last after triggering the PLOW pattern and was only 1 ½ lengths slower than today’s favorite through the final two splits that day.

#9 Cast Member Undefeated on dirt, the first by this dam’s dirt spreads trend toward wanting either turf or distance going +8 to +3 to -1.  Everything looks legitimate here for contention, but you know what they say.  When a runner is trying something new, don’t yield a short price.

Race 9 | Dirt | 8 Furlongs | $20k AOC SB Older

#7 Holiday Arousal Popular at claim box, new barn ran him protected first out to trigger an NPT which he can move off of here.  Competitive race with everyone’s route figures tight so looking for the NPT to be the difference here for some separation.

#5 Donner Lake Turf winner off the PLOW pattern last couple now moving back to main track.  While we can’t compare figures themselves across surfaces, we can consider condition and form transitive.  With the turf condition looking best of career, let’s assume Donner carries top condition to the main track today.  In a competitive race, his 71 / 69 set last time routing on dirt is competitive enough against these that any improvement gives him win chances here.

#6 Big Talker Turfer has spun off a REV/NPT/DTOP combo since moving to the main track and showed durability now stringing together a 4th dirt try.

#8 Leyas Candy ($5.60)Consistent when sprinting but didn’t carry the distance first time routing to a 70/69.  The route running line isn’t better than these and the sprint lines were marginally better than some.  With better odds attached, I’d consider but if this one is destined to go off as the favorite, can’t yield that and be looking to beat as vulnerable.

#1 I Know Cash Flow Sprinter trying a route gets more forward-spent as distance increases (dirt spreads +6 at 5.5F, +10 at 6F, +14 at 7F) making him hard to trust here at 8F today.

Race 10 | Turf | 9 Furlongs | $200k Turf Classic SB Older

#4 Coalinga Road ($8.60)Has a 65/78h PLOW buried behind the dirt tries to peak off of here including an 81.8 Final on turf preceding setting a high foundation.  Must use this one on most tickets.

#5 Kings River Knight Never out of the exacta and undefeated on turf, I could see this one being overlooked and going off at an overlay.  Consider if you’re playing this leg deeper.  We’re typically looking for bigger turf spreads as a ways of deciphering who is fundamentally better equipped for the stretch run but here we have one of those types that can foil the fundamentals and has a chance to steal the race by possibly being let run loose up front.

#8 Carmelita’s Man What I like about him is that while most others in here do some jumping around on surfaces and distances, he just sticks to what he does best here, going longer on turf.  6-year old is fresh here and coming off best form of career despite age.

#1 Aligato Defending champ of this race but limited experience since.  Comes off a nice 80+ Final Figure and rates a contender, just lacks the recent foundation to be completely confident he’ll repeat.

#2 Doc Adams The TDL pattern prompted a nice 4-win tear against optional claimers.  Stepping up the competition here, the turf spreads a bit lower than others while also needing some improvement on Final Figure.  Would prefer double-digits.