Santa Anita Late Pick 5

Santa Anita Late Pick 5 (03/17/24)

Race 5 | Turf | 6F | $80k AOC 4+

#1 Zoffarelli (IRE) (5/2)
I’ve always liked this horse but rates a tough sell as the morning line favorite in here. Lone stateside win came as the culmination of a campaign where he built speed throughout going -2 to -3 to -4.5 to -5.5 in flat sprints. Now he’s into a new campaign 2^nd off the lay-off and the turnback figure of 64/63h is slower than others in here also going route to sprint.

#2 Mackinnon (5/1 ML)
Off the long break, router was much more forward spent at a -5 turf spread than typical with many past running lines boasting double digit + turf spreads. This might call into question current condition here, but to be fair he was also chasing a hot pace against Grade I competition.  Gets a bunch of class relief today and the turnback line of 74/68 towers the other runners in here with cut-back angles out of Santa Anita routes. Wouldn’t be a surprise if he won, but I’d be little surprised if he ended up as high as 5/1.

#3 Sharp Aza Tack (3/1)
Big blowout DTOP in last when getting main track for the second time and now looks to avoid a bounce off that regression angle by switching to less stressful turf. I imagine with the claim, the runner was checked out and training regimen adjusted so perhaps he’s recovered and ready to go 31 days out of that, but still a question mark present. Also note whenever you’ve got a high percentage barn doing something that isn’t part of their typical recipe for their high winning percentage, you’re often in an underlaid spot with the horse. I’m referring to D’Amato only having 5 runners (1 winner) L5Y going dirt to turf directly off a claim.

#4 Mynumerouno (AUS) (10/1)
Given a race on Tapeta with the ship to his new hemisphere before moving campaign to intended surface today. Won a lot down under but think some more acclimation is needed off the NEG and slow work tab.

#5 Nabokov (12/1)
Sprung a geared up 85h/80h on the downhill off the break and given the horse’s inconsistent foundation, I don’t know I trust him to correct some of that energy distribution to be able to go with today’s rivals in stretch.

#6 Mas Rapido (GB) (8/1)
Needs to take a step forward in here to figure but I think the odds will be right to ask for that as he’s looking to push off an 82h/82 on the downhill which is the “tightest” turf spread of all his sprints as well as of any rivals’ sprints pointing to a possible breakout race today.

#7 Escape Route (7/2)
Typically a main tracker with tactical speed like this and recent NPTs is automatically scary to appreciate the cushion of grass. However, looks like this one is going to get support and he’s already had this chance. Back in Jan 2022, runner was also busting out recent NPTs and cashing checks on the main, but seemingly hated the switch to the green stuff. Glatt is a 26% trainer for the meet but only 6% with dirt to turf L1Y.

#8 Lincoln Hawk (IRE) (6/1)
After an extended break, current routing form has taken a hit. Last out’s turnback line of 61/62 looked like 69/65h a year ago. Not feeling too interested in this one, especially if single-digit odds.

#9 Time To Party (12/1)
Outmatched off the break but apparently was looking happy enough in the morning that the connections tried Grade III company. The turnback line of 67/65 is close to others in here and features better “compression” or energy distribution than some. While the runner’s back speed features better routing Final Figures, those internal 4F/6F lines point to this one being as good as he’s ever been for today’s distance and 2^nd off the break here, plenty eligible to make a leap forward. Making this horse one of the longest odds on the board is a mistake in my opinion.

Race 6 | Dirt | 6F | $65 MSW | SB 3F

#1 Sky Sailing (6/1)
Much slower debut at same configuration than counterpart to the right but doesn’t mean much really now 8 months of rest and age development later not to mention that was a tough trip for any debut horse being buried on the rail. Appears to have improved gate speed and stamina these days putting up visually solid works lately. They’ll experiment with blinkers for the sophomore unveiling, a move the barn is quite strong at going 5 for 8 with 2^nd time dirt starters switching to blinkers on. I think a ton of cappers are going to simply compare the debuts of #1 and #2 and skip right over this one leaving her odds open to potentially float way up. Win Bet candidate.

#2 Raising Silver (5/2)
Has a juvenile debut spin on record back in July where it may be a positive she was turning her head to check on rivals and fought past them indicating some good herd dynamics and heart may be present. Post draw could possibly present new challenge as runner doesn’t have any experience if she’s asked to stay inside rivals. Probably more likely to take up a stalking position against these and circle to make one run. Projected running style probably requires we’re offered a bit better odds than this ML.

#3 Wishes To Riches (4/1)
Looked to be given one as education when debuting slow on turf but now switches to main track off a good-looking work tab with a couple 5F tighteners recently.  Thought she could have negotiated turns a little better but nonetheless overall looked good as she wasn’t just being sent out to gallop with other maidens but rather being worked by chasing very strong, accomplished stablemates.

#4 Epione (8/1)
Seeing heavy early urging in her works to attempt to build some speed as she’s been a slow gate horse. If you’re a believer in dosage index, runner boasts a ‘17’ for ‘Classic’ ancestors so if runner puts up a COMP pattern here, might be one to note for backing a stretch-out in distance down the line.

#5 Bit’s Tiger Magic (2/1)
She’s been flashing plenty of gate speed in works enough to garner attention for morning line favoritism and should get plenty of tote support. The most likely winner in maiden events with small fields is simply the runner that’s clear first so tough to toss.

#6 Roberta’s Love (7/2)
Looked okay visually on debut when setting fastest final fraction of that field, but race came back a bit weak with runner prompting a 74/65h NEG. Debut dirt spreads that fall into the sub-category of a +7 to +10 range are considered especially vulnerable. 

Race 7 | Hillside Turf | 6.5F | $100k Irish O’Brien S. | SB FM4+

#1 Madiha (6/1)
Tough one to back in such a formful race as she seems to be one of the few that’s showed some regression over recent running lines and would need to suddenly wake back up here to threaten. Her turnback lines from the routes are weaker than last year’s and they come after a string of tries on this course that saw regression which each run.

#2 Chismosa (4/1)
Edged off the board on this course when facing many of these rivals last time but could be looking for revenge on the heels of improving form with the intervening dirt race coming back a 75h/74h which featured more tactical speed with compression than we’ve ever seen from this one on the main track. Translate that improvement over to today’s spin and look out, a mid-priced upset could be imminent.

#3 Stay And Scam (5/1)
Nice versatility this campaign as 4-back she showed late speed ability with a +4.5 turf spread at this spin, then gave speed when asked on the cutback at -6.5 turf speed. Comes into today more consistent off a couple 0 turf spreads on this course including a last out win. Considering 2-back just heads separated this one from the top 2 morning line favorites, the 5/1 ML looks like it should be impossible to get here but who knows. Must use this one if she’s seriously going off as a middle of the board proposition.

#4 Chancery Way (2/1)
Big steal candidate here again after nearly getting the job done last time when setting the pace then re-bidding in stretch after it looked like the field was coming to get her as she drifted out trying to negotiate the transition to stretch. Very dangerous if they let her walk up front again and she maintains a better path through the crossing this time.  Unfortunately, she figures to garner much more wagering support for today’s steal attempt. First thought on runners like this is usually whether it could be an opportunity to key a single in Pick N’s.  In my opinion though, possible lone pace threats make great singles on anything except this downhill course. The crossing can mess with these runners as seen last time and the dynamics of the layout often allow plenty of room for strong turf pressers and closers to get up the rail or through traffic with a clean look. Deserves ticket inclusion at face value, but there are several of those types in here so an odds projection needs to be made to base a decision on. Pick 5 players will have to structure this leg in the dark, but Pick 4 players can use DBL probables to get a sense.  Use if the price is fair enough but stand against if she appears headed toward clear public favoritism.

#5 Rose Maddox (5/2)
Back to the downhill today, she rates a strong horse for the course twice proven at this configuration in 3 recent tries. In both wins, she faced several of today’s rivals and was more tactical than those blasting through traffic first then sustaining well.  Plenty logical and deserving of co-favoritism but remains vulnerable to familiar rivals that are slight improvements away from flipping the script on her. If these ML’s are anywhere close to accurate, the value of backing others outweighs the slight edge this one has had on them so far.

#6 Scary Fast Ride (8/1)
Condition coming into this surface switch looks to have upward momentum as she flashed good “compression” on the main track with a dirt spread close to 0 off the NPT Pattern. Even energy distribution like that on the main track can often translate well to turf if they want the surface. Must deal with the nuance of the downhill but I’d consider asking her to handle it in the 10/1 range. Would make a really valuable upset in Pick N’s since I suspect most players will be agonizing over who or how many to back across the #2 through #5.

#7 All Dialed In (15/1)
Durability becoming a question for 6-year old who’s failed to string together campaigns lately and last out was most forward spent main track try we’ve seen from her on the sheet. That doesn’t project well for a try on grass so this looks like a pretty optimistic spot for the connections who are 0/6 in non-graded stakes with this runner already.

Race 8 | Dirt | 8F | $25k Clm 4+

#1 Zimba Warrior (5/1)
Regressing Final Figures 4 straight is not a great look coming into today. The case could be made that being claimed back to the barn that had him going better could get him back on track today. However, even reaching back to repeat that 62/70 puts him in a tough spot where he’s likely going to need help from the field to have a chance late.

#2 The Bullion Bomber (IRE) (2/1)
Professional look to trigger a REV when asked to try two turns for first time and relished the distance putting up a best of field 67/71h. Connections looking to get it while the gettin’s good reeling him back in just 7 days rest as he romped stress-free in last.

#3 Departure (5/2)
Had a nice stint of winners’ circle visits this winter but the move south recently features 71/68 and 65/69 lines which fall short of top contention in here and don’t warrant co-favoritism as the ML suggest. LRC can sometimes be a bit of a horse for the course type oval where certain stock often run well there…but only there.  I’d prefer much better odds offered before I consider this one.

#4 Candy For Carmel (4/1)
East coast invader throws a wild card into the puzzle here off a long break. Started 2023 off strong with 3 straight wins before they started experimenting with some different surfaces and distances but ultimately the form regressed as the year went on resulting in a long hiatus. I don’t know how great it looks to have a runner shipped cross-country just to end up risking him first race out. In any case, Baltas’ acquisitions in this manner are mostly turf stock so I could see this being a given race with surface switch intentions later if he stays with barn.

#5 Granada Flavor (15/1)
Took a while to run this one back off the claim, but finally made it to race day then threw up a dud at 62h/64h. Barn knows the horse having ran him 3-back which makes it a little extra disappointing he wasn’t ready to go at all for the season unveiling. If he suddenly wakes up today, there’s back figures to support victory is possible with a 74h/71 last April. There’s no indications present that is a representative paceline of current condition though. 

#6 Midnight Fury (3/1)
Off the 74/70 SOFT at this trip, owns best Last 4F Figure of field. Hasn’t missed the board at Santa Anita and is perfect at the distance. Could be a worthy claim here for a barn in desperate need of wins at the meet. 

Race 9 | Hillside Turf | 10F | $50k AOC 4+

#1 Calm Sea (4/1)
Wants the lead type has been pumping up speed which each recent try getting clearer earlier and could be sitting on good enough condition to try and steal this one off the forward spent 76h/74. Still, several in here project Final Figures higher by a few points with turf spreads that are more fundamental to long-term turf success so I don’t know that I can shop on this one anywhere near this ML. Offered double-digits last couple and couldn’t last so not excited about accepting a fraction of those odds today.

#2 Maltese Falcon (IRE) (3/1)
Wins typically aren’t far out after turf runners trigger PLOWs so figure this one plenty live to run back that 66h/75 and maybe better today now that Dettori’s gotten acquainted with him.

#3 Order And Law (5/1)
Main track router was given a shot at grass off the claim and didn’t disappoint appreciating the new footing at nearly 38/1 to win. Putting up a tactical 71/75, things fell nicely into place where he was in a spot that saw the early speed not able to hang at the same time the late speed ran out of room. Pace in turf races are often unpredictable which makes it a tough ask for this one to get that perfect flow again, especially when only being offered a fraction of the odds. Good win, but I think we’ll move on from him for now.

#4 Reckless Spirit (6/1)
7-year old seems to be at a ceiling in career requiring proper rest between races and just remaining consistently under the top threats in here with his only win in the last 2 years being catching a yielding track. Possible to catch exotics if feeling good but I’m nowhere near assigning him 6/1 to win.

#5 Nashoba’s Joy (20/1)
Big distance test here for longshot. Sports some positive turf spreads at varying shorter distances and pedigree suggests he could handle this trip. This is a tough spot with only one race against winners but not impossible for it to be one he relishes.

#6 Midnight Jostar (4/1)
65/78h winner at this trip a year ago before requiring lay-off after taking a spill in subsequent race. Switched barns and makes return to hillside after a respectable 70h/77 mile try. Cerin is a natural rehabilitator and I fully expect this one to be back at full potential here.

#7 Mo Rewards (12/1)
Has rated a level below these based on running lines going shorter, but perhaps still worthy of a look for the price given that he seems headed in the right direction for this distance test with turf spreads progressing 0 to +7 to +8h to +13 leading in.

#8 Heywoods Beach (8/1)
Decent try on the surface switch in last off a 72h/74h here. Last year’s turf tries featured much bigger turf spreads and even the surrounding dirt races projected much better condition than he seems to be in currently.

#9 Living Life (8/1)
Stretches out today needing a change after struggling to cash against winners at shorter trips. Turf spreads suggest there could be room for improvement with this move and pedigree appears in favor as well. Decent price play.