Santa Anita Holiday Card

Picks & Analysis for 1/15/24

*Edit: Adding results in Red*

Race 1 | Turf | 5 Furlongs | $25k Clm
#5 Kanderel looks to move forward with the NPT dirt to turf angle and good string of longer workouts 2nd off the extended lay-off.
#6 Give Me The Lute
8-year old had not won in over a year until recent hat trick when back to sprinting for barn that made out nicely on him with the 3 for 3 scores. Now off the claim, the change in training regimen could alter current form so I’ll peg him potentially vulnerable here at a projected short price.
#6 wired em while #5 gave it a good shot. 6-5 Exacta paid $20.80 per $2.

Race 2 | Dirt | 8 Furlongs | $20k MC
While #4 Yvett’s Surprise draws the eye off a 78h/66h NPT, pick would be the rival she beat in last with #1 Storming Gray off the 74h/65 NPT. Got beat but dirt spread is a little tighter and the #1 cornered much better than the #4 in that race which could help her flip the tables now going two turns.
Didn’t get the higher priced #1 to turn the tables but an Exacta Box would have scored at $36.20 per $2 for the 4-1.

Race 3 | Dirt | 6.5 Furlongs | $50k SOC
#5 Des Doigts represents the most experience facing winners in here and can pounce off a stellar form cycle pattern here with the NPT coming after a nicely compressed running line. Win bet and Exacta Box to the #6 Heart Headed who invades looking well-intentioned.
Bit of a miss here as #5 rated and then never really got going finishing 5th. #6 won it at even money.

Race 4 | Dirt | 8 Furlongs | $32k MC
#7 Air Force Thunder looks to control race at odds-on with 74/65 debut this weak field can’t touch. After the turf conditioner, lots of room to relax here and should be tough.
#1 Signora Vittoria has defined dirt spread progression toward wanting 2 turns here going +11 to +6h to +4 while stringing many races together. Will need help from the front to get up for win honors but should be at least threatening for exotics late.
#4 Ifuaintfirsturlast is also a bit tighter than usual lately to +5h dirt spread so another that could be in current shape to run into the money.
#4 upset for $16.60 to win. The 4-7 Exacta only $23.40 per $2 as the #7 went off at 2/5. #1 ran 4th.

Race 5 | Turf | 8 Furlongs | $50k SA
#3 So I’m Told been kind of quarter-horsed around since going to this new barn and while they don’t do well with turf, his previous campaign flashed running lines such as 77/77 and 75/78 that could put him in a spot to dog-walk this field at a big price. Draws the right rider to give this a shot.
#6 Comradery another one with tactical speed here on a course that as of late hasn’t been all that friendly to runners trying to accelerate late. 78/75 running line at this trip for new barn much improved over previous tries.
#6 paid $6.80 to win. The #3 set the pace at 10/1 as we asked, but lost the lead top of stretch and finished 4th.

Race 6 | Dirt | 8 Furlongs | $50k AOC
#5 Class Clown has plenty to like in this spot off the 81/75 NPT including several 80+ 4F Figures through campaign which others can’t match. Plenty of room to relax here and control this race. #2 and #3 underneath.
Missed as #5 tried to wire them but was caught in stretch to finish 3rd.

Race 7 | Turf | 5 Furlongs | $25k Clm
#5 Maven faces a geared up field here and looks to have the right trajectory lately to take advantage off an 81h/75h that features good pace for range but a tighter spread for late kick as these forward-spent rivals tire.
#3 Disko Tribute flashes big turf running lines for this trip in recent ability and while NorCal shippers don’t win here at a high rate, that also means they get disrespected on the board more often when they actually do fit well. Keep an eye out for overlay with that 3-back turf line of 87/78 looking quite good in  here.
Minor upset gets home as #3 pays $14.40 to win. #5 on the other hand found a troubled trip and never got things going finishing 6th.

Race 8 | Dirt | 8 Furlongs | $20k AOC
#3 Sensible Move Turfer returns to configuration of last win when running a 68h/70 COMP* in a washed off spin. Faces actual dirt milers now but the running line still fits if she can run back to that off the break here.
Stablemate #6 Issa Court may help out by pushing the other pace presences which aids her chances in this as well.
Favorite won the race with #6 second and #3 fourth.

Race 9 | Turf | 6 Furlongs | $50k AOC
#4 Winning Big sported a well-compressed 73/70 main track win that typically translates well to turf. Lots of positive angles for this barn entering this spot. I’ll be elated if I can get the 6/1 ML.
#1 Beer Money stays geared up here off 80/67h NPT out of turf sprint win of 82h/73h that makes him a gate-to-wire candidate again today breaking from the rail. Looks like just the public’s type though so I don’t know how fair this price will be.
#7 Immelmann looks to be going the right way for a medium price that can add value to exotics here after triggering a REV and looking to build upon the 2-back 79/72 score going shorter.
Got our odds on #4 at 19/1 but apparently wasn’t as live as I thought finishing off the board. The #1 and #7 ran 2nd and 3rd respectively to the longest shot on the board. The #8 at 29/1 was coming off a DTOP in a Tapeta sprint at GGX and trying turf for the 1st time.