Santa Anita Derby

$750,000 Grade I Santa Anita Derby
Santa Anita | Race 10 | Dirt | 9 Furlongs | Post 6:45 ET

#1 Curlin’s Kaos | Weak 75h/69 sprinting locally before lone win came with the easier bounce of turf. Triggered REV in Sunland Derby trip but take that with a grain of salt. Optimistic spot for barn.

#2 Tapalo | Pretty geared up upon starting career but sustained speed better with each run until holding strong on a quick 84 4F in the maiden breaker. Posted a REV first time routing when taking a trip north in last. Things coming together well but I’m not sure it’s 5/1 ML against these well just yet.

#3 Stronghold | Likes to be with first flight so makes sense he’s sustained less when going shorter and appreciated going longer instead since softer fractions are inherent there. Figures stack up well in this field if they translate to SAX where he’s an invader.

#4 Imagination | Development catches the eye as a COMP debut runner that then transformed dirt spread routing +5 to +1 to -9 REV before combining speed and stamina in last for a tactical looking 74/72h victory over today’s oval. Would have to agree with ML maker that he’s the one to beat.

#5 Wynstock | Shaky foundation as one with more duds on his resume than respectable efforts. Apparently loved this surface when prompting a 76h/70 DTOP to break his maiden. Appears geared up for today off a 1/163 bullet work. Clearly hard to trust, but if there’s a barn out there that can eventually teach early speed types how to find and find, this is the one. Possibly worth defensive consideration if there’s any accuracy to this ML getting 8/1+, but I think it’s more likely he draws enough gimmick action that we won’t be interested in having to do that.

#6 Tessuto | Good gate speed flashed in sprints although finish lacked. Route try was still a +4 spread but got the job done against maidens. Probably needs to take a decent step forward in distributing that energy with a REV today to figure being around late though. Double-digit odds appropriate.

#7 McVay | Tightened dirt spreads +13h to +4h to +2h so certainly learning to distribute more professionally. Continued trend could put him in the 70/72 range on today’s track which is getting closer to today’s top threats but still demands better than the 5/1 ML range. Series of bullet works may draw more attention than they’re worth for this one so wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a short enough price we’re playing against.

#8 E J Won The Cup | Excellent durability stringing together a long debut campaign into today. Nice tactical speed in the routes including a 73/72 local running line that looks temptingly good against these. Obstacle today will be the need to adjust tactics as this new level he’s moved up to likely won’t let him just go gate-to-wire like his last couple spins.

Wagering
I have to go with the favorite #4 Imagination who looks like he could win with a wide array of different race flows today. After him, anyone could step up and hit the exotics so any exotics plays I try will be based on catching longer prices underneath.