Pegasus World Cup Picks

Gulfstream Park Picks for 1/27/24

Race 1 | Turf | 8.5 Furlongs | $25k AOC FM4+
#1 Zipadoo has strung together the top Final Figures for the turfers and continues in campaign here as the one to beat.
#5 Demogorgon last on turf put up 73/74h and connected that to a 64/71h on tapeta. Using inference, on last out’s 62/74 on tapeta, I see the same year over year forward move in his likely turf ability. That potential move forward would put her in a spot to be plenty competitive enough to be considered at these juicy odds.
#3 Swoop To Finish has been a consistent earner of high turf spreads no matter what the track condition throws at her. Worked up to a lifetime best 60/77 before the intervening tapeta race.

Race 2 | Dirt | 7 Furlongs | $89k MSW 3
A field full of debut runners means no figures to assess, but in a competitive straight maiden field, here’s a couple that catch my eye.
#11 Tapakena is well-bred for a combination of speed and stamina and comes from a family of earners. 
#5 Victory Avenue has a lot of speed in his breeding and looks to be tight for this off a bullet 5F work.

Race 3 | Turf | 7.5 Furlongs | $62.5k AOC FM4+
#1 Sun Bee owns the biggest last out turf spread of the group, something she’ll need to work out a try from this rail draw. Race flow will need to go in her favor, but on the chance they do, she’ll be ready to pounce as the lone S-type in this race.
#5 Ancient Peace is in need of a form reversal here after being forwardly-spent her entire career. Perhaps, this drop from stakes company will offer her a chance to be more relaxed here and she can go on with it at an overlaid price. Gets Lasix today which produced her best dirt running line the only other time on it.

Race 4 | Tapeta | 8.3 Furlongs | $100k Hcp FM4+
#3 Candy Light sports a top running line at this trip buried in his past as a 66/81 winner in Dec ’22. Moves from a barn mostly successful with turf to Saffie today so perhaps the new training regimen will have him on his best Tapeta ability today.

Race 5 | Turf | 8 Furlongs | $62.5k AOC 4+
#6 Masen (GB) takes a drop here with back Figures that can easily top this weaker field. This spot makes more sense for him after missing most of 2023. As to the co-favorite, #11 Ice Chocolat (BRZ), the drop looks suspect and makes me wonder if that runner needs a race to recover from the NPT put up in last.
Edit (11:19AM ET): Add #4 Whisper Not as a top contender in here.

Race 6 | Turf | 12 Furlongs | $150k G3 La Prevoyante S. FM4+
Might be tough to find value in this race as the match-up of #1 Romagna Mia (GB) vs #3 R Calli Kim would seem to be the most likely storyline. I’ll take my shot though and give a look to #8 Tass who is bred for this trip but hasn’t been given the chance on grass until now. On top of that, consider the Value Plays’ algorithm values positive Form Cycle Patterns so it can also mean plenty when a runner is chosen as the top non-patterned value in a race.

Race 7 | Tapeta | 8.3 Furlongs | $100k Hcp 4+
#12 Saratoga Flash popped an 80/80h NPT at this trip. Look for a more relaxed move here resulting in improved late stamina and a chance to upset at a price.
#6 County Final enters off 77/81h and 76h/79 running lines here that encompass a nice balance of tactical speed giving this one a fair shot with a wide range of race flows.
#9 Skyro has a similar look of good tactical speed off 75h/81h and 75h/80h but #6 County Final was given the nod due to trajectory and he appears to have room to go forward even more while this one may be racing at a current ceiling.
#10 Border Town Don’t overlook this price play invading from WOX and going 2nd off an NPT here as that massive 88h/83h running line certainly leaves a lot of potential stretched over this longer distance if runner is back to relaxed fashion today.

Race 8 | Turf | 12 Furlongs | $200k G3 William L. Knight S. 4+
#9 Grand Sonata is well-bred for this trip and deserves another chance after catching a yielding track last time at 12 panels. Come in off the 2nd highest Last Final Figure, only to today’s favorite.
#6 Palazzi is dangerous at a price today if they give the closer an attainable target in stretch. Whether turf or synthetic, runner has consistently been hitting spreads in the +20s. We’ve seen a fair share of Woodbine invaders outrun their odds at this Gulfstream meet to date.
#3 Stone Age has had a disappointing year since earning a million in ’22 but he’s also caught a lot of “off” goings. Perhaps 2nd off the TDL and getting back to a firm track today are the combo he needs to show he’s still got his best.
#4 Value Engineering with a couple spins off the break that aren’t representative of his potential. He’s a winner on this oval and has a competitive back figure of 61h/79h at this distance. Ranks below the top contenders but worth mentioning as he figures to go off at an overlay.

Race 9 | Dirt | 7 Furlongs | $200k G2 Inside Information S. FM4+
#9 Maryquitecontrary looks to be in standout condition here. The 79/74 of 2-back would win today if repeated and the SOFT pattern indicates there was plenty left in the tank out of the mile win.
#7 Sassy Nature makes return to the main track with an 82/71 DPT buried way back before the turf career. Runner likes the lead and that’s the best place to be on this surface. Imagine there’s an inherent improvement possible from age development alone here as well.  Must bet on this one if she’s really going to offer double-digits.
#8 Gerrymander looks to be set down off a string of mile tries here 2nd off the NPT. Pulling the 4F/6F out of those we find this runner and worked up to an 82/71 range that makes her one of the top contenders today.

Race 10 | Turf | 8.5 Furlongs | $500k G2 Pegasus World Cup F&M Turf 4+
#7 Fluffy Socks owns the best Last Final Figure and showed versatility when just missing being pressed at a mile on her fastest 4F Figure. Now has big turf spreads to fall back on that were progressing from +11 to +25 over the 4 races preceding that blowout mile try.
#5 Full Count Felicia sports turf spreads moving up fast for a breakout here at 0 to +1 to +15 in last while able to accelerate off a slower pace and win on this course.
#6 Ruby Nell is an obvious “steal candidate” here popping off 80+ 4F Figures which are not typical on grass. Could very well slingshot the top of the stretch alone and get brave.
#9 Didia (ARG) worth mentioning as she cuts back to 3 for 3 distance off the break.

Race 11 | Dirt | 8 Furlongs | $150k G3 Fred W. Hooper S. 4+
#7 Castle Chaos is making moves at the right time to be live longshot in this one. There’s not much foundation here as past running lines are pretty inconsistent with a good number of duds but we could be catching him in his best condition looking to push off the 82/72 NPT Pattern in last and build upon that good-looking 76/78h win of 2-back.
#1 Hejazi remains the one to beat on the ML and in reality. Shouldn’t have a problem being forwardly-placed here and holding his speed on the stretch back out to a mile.
#8 Accretive Give him an excuse for the muddy track in last and previous form featured good tactical speed holding tight in the -2 range for a mile while producing competitive Final Figures.

Race 12 | Turf | 9 Furlongs | $1m G1 Pegasus World Cup Turf 4+
#5 Webslinger Great price if really 15/1 for a runner always right there. Fundamentally we look for turf spreads that are growing but in this case, we’re taking a shot with the opposite trajectory. Since triggering his PLOW at +28 he’s gone +18 to +14 to +9 building sustained pace. The key though to this being okay though is that his Final Figures continue to grow along with that going 71 to 76 to 80.
#6 Kingmax (IRE) sports the lone PLOW of the field off a competitive 67h/81 on this course. 
#7 Adhamo (IRE) cuts back in distance 2nd off the PLOW. His consistent double-digit turf spreads could come into play here as a weapon going shorter. He stands a better chance for a flow to run into with the inherited increased pace of a cut-back from the longer routes he’s been trying to no avail lately.

Race 13 | Dirt | 9 Furlongs | $3m G1 Pegasus World Cup 4+
#7 National Treasure was royally bred for a spot like this but have watched him fail to meet expectations his entire career thus far. #4 Hoist The Gold and #12 Skippylongstocking can put the pressure on early and ensure he doesn’t walk up front here at a 9/5 price I find way too short to consider in this full field.

This is one of the weaker Pegasus fields we’ve seen as many top racehorses from the latest crop retired early. The door seems to be open for a price play to breakthrough. My top longshots:
#11 Crupi Has the most recency of the field and campaigns into off a Lifetime Top Final with good trajectory preceding over a good string of races. Looks like a breakout spot here if he can get the trip and flow needed.
#6 Senor Buscador Closer is one to watch for in the lane if the front is backing up late here. Double-digit dirt spreads have recently gave way dropping -15 to -10 to -5. That new sustainable pace could help this one stay in range better here with an improved chance to get up late.
#1 Nimitz Class Nice check casher in the Northeast circuit for an extended stretch. Quite the optimistic ship here for new barn looking to get their latest acquisition back to winning ways. Last couple fast track tries were sub-70 Final Figures which isn’t a metric shared with any rival today so it would seem form needs to rebound in a big way here. To Weaver’s credit though, three times (L5Y) he’s either claimed or acquired a runner and went straight to a graded stakes resulting in three place finishes (9/1, 11/1, and 18/1). If he can wheel this runner back to potential here, runner possesses back running lines to contend at a big price.