Pegasus Day at Gulfstream

Races 1-9 touch on prominent runners, both positive looks for selections and some negative looks for fades.Races 10-13 feature runner-by-runner analysis for the entire fields of the Late Pick 4.

Race 1 | Turf | 8 Furlongs | $25K AOC F&M 4+

#3 Watch It5-year old late on the scene but made it to the track nevertheless.  Chalk up the COMP/NPT combo as a good starting spot for in-race conditioning.  A winner off the lay-off featuring some development in the turf spread makes her a solid candidate for grass here.  Comments below for 2 of the top 3 morning lines looking possibly suspect here leaves this one in a spot where we may be kicking off the card with a win bet and possible single on some Pick N tickets.

#14 Stuck On KittenIf drawing in, offers a local spin featuring a touch more turf spread than any of the others to have seen this configuration already.  Should offer a nice price for the try.

#2 Breaker Of Chains68h/77h locally is solid against these but far from making her a clear favorite as it comes a year removed from racing.  Being given a healthy drop here so the cautious placement for connections maybe a concern on current ability.

#4 She’s The One Think market support here is more based on connections’ ability to run well than the horse itself.  Lacked improvement in running lines from ’21 to ’22 while also failing to string races together lately.

Race 2 | Dirt | 7 Furlongs | $84K MSW 3YOs

#5 SummonyourcourageThere’s a lot of times when we scoff at long-time maidens (compared to field) but in this case, that extensive juvenile season probably gives this one a leg up on development especially with all the positive conditioning experienced through NPTs, DTOPs, and a REV.  $500k purchase gets Lasix and a new rider who isn’t too bad they say.

#1 Dark VectorInside spot isn’t often ideal for debut runners that lack experiencing being inside rivals but no worries if this one just fires out.  2 of 4 half-sibs were debut winners as pacesetters.

Race 3 | Turf | 11 Furlongs | $62,500 AOC 4+

#9 Ever DangerousSmall improvements in Final Figure over many races leading in and after experimenting with blinkers in last to prompt a 75h/79h, runner takes them back off and looks to relax into softer fractions of longest race in career.  Hasn’t seen the winner’s circle in a while and I like Weaver’s plan here to prompt a spot to remedy that.

#6 Cupid’s ClawsInteresting for longshot consideration based on lack of opportunities given to try a spot similar to the west coast days when this runner was prompting some good-looking 79 Finals going 10 and 12 panels.

Race 4 | All-Weather | 8.3 Furlongs | $100k Handicap F&M 4+

#6 Keeper Of Time (IRE)Pretty simple Top Contender look here boasting that COMP debut and victory when trying this configuration a year ago.  Has since triggered her TDL and comes off one of the best turf running lines of this field at 68h/76h. 

#2 Love Her LotsOne to look for late if the lane opens up boasting some big spreads that stand out from this field.  Needs the right race flow but also likely offers the right price to ask for it.

Race 5 | Turf | 8 Furlongs | $25k AOC 4+

#11 JourneymanTough to argue with status as likely favorite off that 69/80 running line that tops this field while sporting a resume of synthetic tries deep with late spread.

#4 AxthelmTriggered an early PLOW which we like to see in our turf runners but also now has an early REV on the main track which can translate well moving back to the grass here.

Race 6 | Turf | 12 Furlongs | $150k La Prevoyante S. | F&M 4+

#4 Beside HerselfOnly runner in here that’s a winner at the distance, she figures to be forwardly-placed and although turf racing is typically about acceleration, these marathon-type distances can end up having a reverse effect where the early goings can end up easy enough that when it’s time for the real racing to start everyone’s just as loaded from front to back and the runner with first jump is able to outlast late charges.

#5 AdventuringCareer wins have come on sloppy main track, non-traditional KDX course, yielding turf, and synthetic.  Today’s proposed heavy favorite has won on about every going except today’s firm turf oval.  Fear is the only reason I see not to try beating her.

Race 7 | All-Weather | 8.3 Furlongs | $100k Handicap 4+

#10 Steady OnOne of the tougher races on the day.  The PLOW/REV combo and big 72h/81h running line draw the eye to this one but not with a large degree of confidence in a wide open event.

Race 8 | Dirt | 7 Furlongs | $200,000 G2 Inside Information S. | F&M 4+

#4 ObligatorySports a lot more compression than these and definitely one to fear in the lane as your majority dirt sprinter doesn’t run mathematically negative spreads like this one can.  At first glance, looks the type of favorite you’d love to catch vulnerable and beat with a speedster that can get up and stay brave.  Tough to find one in here I could pinpoint as trustworthy as many of the quick starters seem to be in regressive cycles at the moment not to mention just having those several options to choose from in the first place suggests a favorable race flow for this favorite.

Race 9 | Turf | 12 Furlongs | $200,000 G2 William L. McKnight S. | 4+

#7 Channel Maker9-year old makes Start #50 here and veteran continues to get dropped into spots here and there where more graded stakes wins can be racked up.  Props to this OG.

#9 Value EngineeringReally solid response to switching barns by giving a winning effort right off the bat trying longest distance of career while also first time on synthetic.  Needs to show some improvement now on previous turf form to figure here, but if last race is any indication of how he likes the new training regimen, that needed improvement should be gettable.

#11 Red KnightOn the improve lately and hoping last out’s Lifetime Best 80 Final Figure wasn’t a ceiling.  See as a threat but I’ll become less interested along with the odds if they end up going shorter than ML.

Race 10 | Dirt | 8 Furlongs | $150,000 G3 Fred W. Hooper S. | 4YO+

#1 Miles D This is the one in the field that gets you consistently the most (mathematically) negative dirt spreads meaning sustained pace/late run.  Covers well any race flow that would allow this type of runner to stalk and pounce on ‘em late.  That said, you need help from others on dirt if you’re coming from behind and likely not “taking the race” on your own terms.  Fine covering myself with this runner with mid prices offered but if he’s really going off as a clear favorite, then I think we’re just seeing CB off a long lay-off and playing him purely out of fear.  Looks like a toss for me unless that price inflates.

#2 Noble DramaBack where he belongs, figures to be the same sort as the rail horse being the only other with -10 dirt spread ability.  With this one, trading lower Final Figures for a much better price.  Really tough to imagine things going his way here.  Despite the longshot odds, you figure even if the perfect pace scenario materializes, he’s likely coming out of a very similar trip as the #1 who is much more equipped to handle that particular potentiality.

#3 Mish Price looks pretty short here if ML is any indication.  Couldn’t sustain through a 74 4F Figure against optional claimers so I don’t know how this E8 runner is supposed to handle a field with several rivals willing to push this thing to an 80 4F Figure while also having most of them boast better local Final Figures as well.

#4 Octane Did well to finally show some compression in last but now goes back to place where he’s longtime been forward spent.  Draws next to a rival that wants the lead, this could spell a stressful first half for both of them.

#6 Black Belt Lifetime best off the break while keeping a win streak going could signal the continuing progression of exciting form.  Connections liked it enough to bump him up to a graded stakes try. 

#7 Picking Up Pennies Big threat on the ability here with solid value likely attached.  Back-to-back SOFT wins are patterns that indicate runner likely had more in the tank so we’ve gotta give credit that the previous 79/76 running line is not only possible, but plenty likely here.  I’d respect anyone’s stand to structure a ticket around a runner like this one.

#8 Doc Amster Sprinter will try extra panels here for newest barn.  Spent career with 3 different 20%+ barns and now experimenting with more distance for 4% connections.  Would be surprised if this one is only 20/1.  The surprise sprint to route steal is certainly a viable angle in racing but I just don’t get the vibe here with no recency.

#9 Endorsed There’s spots of talent in the running lines but before this recent victory that came back a weakish 79/72, you have to start scrolling to find the last win.  The potential’s there if he runs his best but it still feels rough to accept any single-digit price.

#10 The Reds Has completely folded up against the pecking order of graded stakes rivals twice and figures to have a lot of traffic to deal with against this group.  Hasn’t done much when fresh in the past so rates tough to trust off the break against these.

#11 Dean Delivers Looking to fire off the big 82h/73h NPT here.  Gets extra distance but race remains one turn here which is a good thing for this post draw.  Long backstretch allows plenty of time to work over into position before the turn negating those worried about ground loss when they see the #11 attached.  Value Plays algorithm likes this one’s shot enough that everyone else is listed as “Average” or “Too Slow.”

#12 Prevalence Has that nice back ability of 77/77 here but “representative pacelines” lose their “representation” when a runner is no longer in the same condition and cycle as when they were previously earned.  While others in here have been developing and getting better this one quickly popped a couple big ones to earn that potential back ability but hasn’t made many strides outside of it posting the same Final Figure at the same trip 10 months apart.  Not trusting this one from the look of the sheets.  Only thing that would make me re-consider is if you show me some amazing comments from clocker reports perhaps.

#13 Twelve Volt Man Grinder type lacks speed to be in this one early and dirt spread to be flying much better than others late.  Runner seems trapped here tactically to where he can grab a slice but tough to see it play out in your head where he can win it.

Race 11 | Turf | 8.5 Furlongs | $500,000 G3 Pegasus World Cup F&M Turf | F&M 4+

#1 Artie’s Princess I’ll give her this, she is coming in off a running line that fundamentally points to turf more-so than she ever has in the past with a turf spread of +6 (taken from synthetic).

#2 Dalika (GER) Type to just run her race and hope to survive.  She’s catching rivals here that absolutely love running at tiring targets.  Horse isn’t much of a rater and odds aren’t what I want to back a horse trying to “steal” on grass.  Toss for me.

#3 Wakanaka (IRE) Biggest turf spread (+16) of career in last.  All others rivals to come close to that turf spread did it with more distance so a nod to this one for being ripe to fly a bit faster than others down the stretch here.  Using.

#4 Sweet Enough (GB) If I’m gonna use a runner hoping they’re close up and get brave, this one is more my style than that #2 Dalika. 

#6 Queen Goddess Has won on the lead lately but doesn’t need it.  This one has better professionalism than both the #2 and #4 if we’re discussing runners that could be forwardly-placed.  Not sure she’ll be 9/2 here, that would be a pretty good price for classy sort that is a graded winner on both surfaces.

#7 Lady Rockstar (GB) Been widening here going the opposite way with turf spread progression than what we fundamentally like to see for turf runners (+22 to +14 to +7).  Fundamentals of turf aside, the angle here signals a runner that’s working toward being more forward and stronger doing it.  This is where you get your winners when the fundamentals fail.  Irad moves elsewhere and bettors might follow him.  If she floats up some off this ML, she’s a really interesting prospect to key some tickets with.

#8 Justify My Love (BRZ) Triggered her PLOW which is good news for her as pretty well every turfer that goes on to have some success prompts that form cycle pattern somewhat early in their career as this one has.  One to watch going forward but probably in over her head for today.  Even for the bomb price, don’t think I could justify the investment of including in Pick N tickets but I could see superfecta players having her in the bottom of tickets since she has the PLOW to propel her to run on late and there should be some forwardly-placed runners going backwards in here.

#9 Shantisara (IRE) Turned up lame after that April race and needed helped back to the stables.  Her return after recovery turned up disappointment at even money and now you have to wonder if she just needed that one or truly suffered some “power loss.”  Class players will follow Irad over to her and I just think she gets too much support here for having no good recency to count on.  Done her best work on soft running with more distance and Gulf grass isn’t much known for its bounce.  She looks unplayable for me.  This is that spot on the card where you break out the ole “if she beats me, she beats me” limerick everyone gets to use once a day.

Race 12 | Turf | 9 Furlongs | $1,000,000 G1 Pegasus World Cup Turf | 4YO+

#1 Wit If I needed a runner to overcome being buried on the rail and probably having to run a race inside to out, I’d want that runner to be off a TDL.  The majority of good turf runners prompt PLOWs but only a slice of them ever trigger the powerful subset of that move, the TDL.  That said, while the outlook here is improvement to a lifetime best, the question is whether a lifetime best will be good enough against this stacked group and what would constitute fair odds to ask for that improvement.  To consider a win bet, I’m thinking double-digits for sure.  For Pick N, would be a “must use” if you’re one without a stance in this race and spreading over several.

#2 Good Governance (GB) Great price likely here.  Bettors jumping ship just because this one leaves CB barn but maintains nice late kick.  The race flow of that last one kept the first half of the field early the first half of the field late with this runner being the exception and passing rivals. 

#3 Atone Can’t quite seem to get that elusive graded stakes win always giving himself a chance but not quite able to reach the top of the pecking order.  Interesting to see a turf horse littering the work tab with bullets and drawing a noticeable rider change.

#4 Hurricane Dream (FR) Certainly possible this one could like the ship.  Has often come up a bit short on softer ground overseas but now seeing the firm ground of U.S. turf, that added traction has possibilities for giving this one increased acceleration late.  Obstacle though is that if you’re running on from the back in France, then you’re running on from the back and then some in the US. 

#5 One More Bid Took a minute but found preferred spot when getting to grass and two turns.  Moved off the PLOW to win first time against winners in an optimistic placing against graded stakes rivals.  Takes another big shot up the ladder here and that’s where the line might have to be drawn.  On the right path and one to watch after today but needs a lot of improvement with most of today’s rivals looking at 80+ Finals.

#6 Lady Speightspeare At first glance, she’s off the best Last Final Figure of the field with that 83 out of the BC event.  Typically, it’s the type of quick capping spot where you like her based on “Bests” system but a spot like this rates a bit more complicated than that.  The spot I’m talking about is runners on long campaigns scheduled to peak for a certain race, in this case the BC, and now we’re in January on while she’s probably still well-intentioned here, it’s kind of a “reset” type of spot which is where we end up getting the “bounce off the BC” fade angle so many cappers like to live by.  Always been a solid runner but we’re asking her to repeat a huge performance and getting a fraction of the previous price so I’ll leave off.

#7 Speaking Scout Tough one to like from a PF Pace Figure standpoint just never really getting close to what the top threats in here have ran.  If you think he can push forward off that lifetime best last out, can take comfort runner has proven he can ship around and run well off the plane/trailer.  Don’t think I’ll have room for him on my tickets though.

#8 Who’s The Star Loves to win north of the border and been blowing up on the switch to tapeta.  That new and exciting form may have more to do with the surface than current condition meaning unsure turf form is going to suddenly improve here on the switch back.  Likely to be well outran early and have a lot of obstacles in the way of a late rush.

#9 Decorated Invader Been a “consistent” horse over several years with little development any which way so the potential ceiling probably isn’t far up from his par.  Got a favorable trip in 74/81 local spin and now it can only get tougher.

#10 Ivar (BRZ) Always shows up with a consistent spattering of 80+ Finals and like to see that durability of stringing together those 3 fall races despite typically being one to spread them out.  Has that BC bounce angle but this is probably one potential favorite I couldn’t bring myself to stand against.  The 7-1-2-0 record of last couple years looks iffy however I also think Ivar boasts the best strength of schedule in here.

#11 Master Piece (CHI) Nice little section of development with the PLOW and COMP preceding that big peak to a 74/83 upset victory in July.  Has ran well first out for two other barns so why not again today trying out Saffie’s training regimen now.

#12 City Man Winning ways describes current condition as presser has been overtaking them late seemingly at will.  It’s hard to win 4 races in a row is the only reason I can think of you wouldn’t use this one.  Not a very good reason.

Race 13 | Dirt | 9 Furlongs | $3,000,000 G1 Pegasus World Cup | 4YO+

#1 Proxy Bit fresh here just the one spin since July but that hasn’t been an obstacle in career.  Three straight 80+ Finals.  Previous 72+/80+ lines mean plenty of room for more sustained pace after that SOFT pattern so upgrade what you thought of the last performance.  Not many in here hitting -10 dirt spreads so a possible late/sustained speed advantage here can help him overcome if he gets buried early.

#2 Simplification Moved forward off the NPT in last so looks to be in a good spot condition-wise while also showing good development in ability with a nice spike from the FOY running line to what he’s doing now at the same trip.  Bad news is there’s some others that have shown even more development in their 3yo to 4yo ability.  Back to the good news, price offered should be plenty fair.

#3 Ridin With Biden Habitual winner been doing his thing at Parx but waters are deep on the ship.  Several of today’s opponents have visited and popped much better Final Figures there.

#4 White Abbario Runner gets back to where he did his damage early in career after being well-travelled and finding it hard to catch a field he can best outside of Florida.  There was a time when you’d be elated to be offered 10/1 but not looking so enticing now after being beat by rivals he’ll see today in three straight.  In hindsight, might be in a better spot today if he would have stayed home and campaigned.

#5 Defunded West coast shipper likely isn’t flying over to run a dud.  Expect an honest try from the bell here.  Good mix of speed and compression give this one options to handle several different race flows.  Can’t imagine this one doesn’t take a decent chunk of support here and offer something close to co-favoritism.

#6 Art Collector Capable to handle high sustained speed when at best.  Question mark here at 119 days off as runner has needed a race a couple times in career when launching new campaigns.  Tough to trust past his prime at 6yo with all others closer to the average racehorse peak of 4.5yo.

#7 Skippylongstocking Sports a nice 75h/79 local win in last, worth something welcoming out-of-town shippers.  Sure looked strong off that winter break and had plenty of durability throughout sophomore campaign so there’s foundation there to say he can handle this breakout performance off the break and show right back up again.

#8 Get Her Number Cross out the slop try and it’s a big stretchout from ’22 campaign.  Those sprint lines were nicely compressed, a positive for extra distance tries, so there’s something to like here experimenting with back to two turns for first time in a while.  Decision may have been made to try this a long time ago because they’ve really been working him on the morning tab.  Live longshot.

#9 Last Samurai Shown just a touch more ability since the NPT/DTOP conditioning.  Would have liked to see a bit more improvement out of that combo before taking on this spot but there’s enough there that this is probably one to watch going forward another day.

#10 Cyberknife If indeed sent off with the most support, not the “got it in the bag” type of favorite we’ve seen in years past for this race.  Recent history of this race has been dominated by heavy favorites when they’re present.  In the couple editions where there was no horse under 2/1, the favorite failed.  Runner was on a nice long sophomore campaign working up to the top condition that saw him take the Haskell and just miss the BC Dirt Mile in last half of the year.  Now must show he can jump right back into top racing form after experiencing first lay-off of career.  Sounds like a potential favorite I want to try and beat.

#11 Stilleto Boy Best spins seem to be behind him with Final Figures far behind this field recently.

#12 O’Connor (CHI) The local threat off a good-looking COMP/REV to start stateside career and now thrust into this confident spot even though failing first time against winners.  Now that the “stateside bounce” is out of the way, look for possibility of seeing his best today.  I find that local winners can sometimes offer nice overlays and get sent off as bomb longshots as everyone welcomes in shippers for big-name connections with their wagers.