Parx Tuesday Analysis

*Edited with Results in Red*

Race 1 | Dirt | 8.3 Furlongs

#7 Florianopolis *Scr*Field of maidens who are either stretching out for the first time after being unsuccessful sprinting or are already unsuccessful routers.  Instead of figuring out who’s the “least weak of the weak”, the right answer is often enough the lone debut runner.  Goes for 2019 Parx Owner Title holder.

#8 Omerta Code $4.80 winnerShips over from AQU off a REV Pattern, a move that typically signals more distance next out will be a good thing.  I’m thinking he’ll be a co-favorite so nod goes to him for the noted Form Cycle Pattern.

#10 Raisedaroofcharlie *Scr*The Value Plays’ algorithm Top Contender in here could be coming into good form after popping a 69h/63h last out, his best running line in a year and now connections get him back entered in 2 weeks.  Has been seen making a rally late in last couple sprints.

Race 2 | Dirt | 6 Furlongs

#7 Scarf 3rd @ 6/1Slowly worked into pretty good shape with a career-best 66.7 / 63.0 and following SOFT win before she was claimed to today’s new high-percentage barn.  Been popping higher 4F Figures with that new outfit including a 2-back NPT and a bounce-back performance seems imminent with that conditioning under her belt.  If not today, I’d follow to see where she’s at next.

Race 3 | Dirt | 6.5 Furlongs

Not a great betting race from a vertical standpoint as you could make a case for any in here given the right race flow.  However, for vertical wagers, it won’t go unnoticed Ness has both a rabbit and deep closer entered here so many might just cover the #3 and #6 and call it a day.  I’ll go elsewhere with the Turfway shipper #1 Polar Wind back to dirt, #2 Midlaner saving ground and possibly liking the bit of extra distance, and #5 Iconic Legacy who’s coming off his most compressed running line of the sheet. #1 Scr   #2 Place @ 5/2     #5 Show @ 4/1

Race 4 | Dirt | 8.5 Furlongs

#4 Singinthruthestorm Just Missed @ 5/1Quick trajectory change here with dirt spreads going +7 to 0 to -10.  Like to see Gonzalez more interested in this mount than riding back the #6 who gave him wake up speed last out.  The caveat is he’s a cheap horse who may have to actually pass some rivals this time around which he doesn’t have a much experience doing so I’d prefer to see better odds go off than this 5/1 ML.  Despite the question in herd dynamics here, stand-out spread progression can’t be dismissed.

Race 5 | Dirt | 7 Furlongs

*Both Runners Scratched*#6 Enraged might be a popular single play here and I don’t know that I blame them.  With the needed spin out of the way and finally stitching back-to-back races together since last summer, this one has a good shot to control the race start to finish with most of these rivals attempting to set down to one turn.  He also becomes a bit of a straight class play as you’ll find 70+ Final Figures riddled across his sheets but on no other runners’ sprint tries. 

#4 The Method is intriguing for the minor upset here with the 2-back CPT having turnback figures (pulling 4F/6F out of a route) of 71.2 / 64.5 which are best of any recent turnback lines in here.  Off the SOFT win, there was no energy spent and runner should be fresh to fire again 15 days back.  Goes first time for lightly-raced barn that had pretty much never won but has all of a sudden hit the board 7 of 8 this meet.  I say “intriguing” because I’d like to try this one but feel the public might take notice and end up betting him down too much for me to actually end up fading the #6.

Race 6 | Dirt | 6 Furlongs

#8 Full Contact is interesting as a double-digit shot in here.  He popped a DTOP to break maiden in 4th start and caught a tiring muddy track first against winners.  In that one, #5 Ava K’s Boy was 1 of only 2 rivals that had the strength to actually sustain through it well ahead of the next flight.  While the majority of that field was heavily forward-spent with double-digit dirt spreads and Ava K’s Boy earning a +7 dirt spread, give credit to Full Contact for, although not making up ground on the Top 2, staying on for a +8 dirt spread.  He adds Lasix today and didn’t expend as much energy as that #5 in last so could be looking to turn the stables as a longshot fresher today.  M/L favorite #2 Recluse in this one has a question mark in that he took a while to work up to a blowout maiden win then fired a dud against winners; starting new campaign today off one published work.  2nd on the M/L is the #1 Gimmebackmybullets who gets buried on the rail and rates one of the slower early types in here; projects needing to work an inside-to-out trip with the #2 likely having speed then possibly backing up if not ready fresh.  Good race to back an upset runner even if you don’t like the one I went with.#5 Winner @ 1/2     #8 Place @ 8/1

Race 7 | Dirt | 6 Furlongs

What jumps out to me initially is the Value Plays’ view of this race.  We have a full field but there are no “Too Slow” rated horses in here, a rarity and possibly an indicator of a formful and competitive contest on our hands.  In that case, something we can take a stand on becomes quite valuable.  Let’s consider the #4 Lizzies Red Velvet standing out with the field’s fastest Last 4F Figure by 1 point and best Last Final Figure by 2 points.  Yes, she technically triggered the NEG pattern causing the algo to label her a “Regressor” but let’s consider the fundamental angle on NEGs being regressive is based on maidens going 2nd out against “COMP” runners.  In this case, she repelled pressure from rivals throughout to win easily and perhaps could have put up a more compressed spread if she was being challenged late.  Most of today’s field has a double-digit number of starts, most at Parx, and still none of them have beaten winners.

There’s no general expectation on PEN to PRX shippers.  Some aren’t happy and regress hard while others approve and improve.  I chalk it up to a matter of preference for the difference in soil composition which can mean a lot since we’re usually dealing with cheaper stock between these 2 ovals.

#6 Reid’s FangirlNo recency to make a good guess on current condition but we know a few things:  You can cross a line through that last race.  She has strong back ability comparing last year’s PRX running lines to the rest of this field.  She’s first off the claim for a high percentage barn and rides light today.  Absolutely deserves consideration here.#4 Scr     #6 Pretty flat 5th @ 2/1 in a needed race

Race 8 | Dirt | 6 Furlongs

#2 Mutasallem He’s been tighter lately running his first negative dirt spread (late speed) in 11 races.  Not able to gain ground on routers, I like this move down to his shortest try in a year while also noting his last one-turn try was a compressed 71.3 / 68.4 win.  He could get a good set-up with several speeds in here that are looking for redemption after duds and may all fire out softening each other up.  Win bet for me here.

#5 Perfect Day with a nice-looking sheet kicking off career COMP – NPT – NPT while tackling three different ovals.  Unfortunately, we’re over a year removed from all that nice conditioning so we can’t apply it much to estimating today’s condition.  A few obvious things that look positive would be he enters this OC without a tag and also sports the coveted workout move of a bullet into a slower maintenance work preceding return.  Although we’ll give him the contender label, consider everything mentioned are things everyone will also like, and he could end up overbet for our intents and purposes here.#2 Show @ 7/2     #5 Place @ 5/2

Race 9 | Dirt | 8.3 Furlongs

In the battle of recent habitual winners between #4 Date Night Kisses and #5 Peach Perfect, I’d have to side firmly against the Ness charge here.  Crossing out the slop performance, there’s a strong possibility #3 Aegean Sea goes back to his rank ways of setting a “fake fast” tempo here.  Not only do Peach Perfect’s running lines rank a smidge higher than Date Night Kisses’ overall, but she has plenty of experience running her own race and coming at a target in stretch while this favorite would seem to prefer controlling a race herself.

Aside from that battle of recent winners, I hope to see #1 Trolley Ride possibly remain fair odds and end up the most value in this race as the veteran gets back closer to her winning distance while ditching stakes rivals’ and sports a hot “first with trainer” angle.  8-year old’s sheet is littered with 70+ Finals while the rest of these rivals lack that foundation.#1 Held on for Place @ 2/1

Race 10 | Dirt | 8.3 Furlongs

#5 Dreaming Of Gerry Not only off a SOFT Pattern indicating he’s got plenty more to give but he also moves from his “tightest” dirt spread on the sheet of -8.  No one else is touching that current form here and he carries the look of a solid favorite on his way to three wins in a row here.

If you refuse to let me move on without an upset shot, #7 Irish Exit has the look of one that could surprise.  Runner hasn’t seen a fast-rated track in a while.  Could like the return to dry footing and fire here as he set consecutive NPTs last two fast tracks while also coming off a sloppy track NPT into today.  Keep in mind he previously ran considerably better on fast tracks than wet tracks, but all of a sudden is 2 for 2 in the slop off the break.  Extrapolation could indicate big performance incoming?#7 $15.80 winner    $2 Exacta 7-5 $51.00

Race 11 | Dirt | 6 Furlongs

#1 Crypt Consistent in form lately staying in the +4 dirt spread and 65 Final Figure range, you should get an honest try in the lane out of him so long as the new training regimen fits him off the claim.  Like he’s recently shown ability to fight past rivals when in tight on the inside.

#5 Indirectly Gets the call as an upset shot off the CPT here.  Cut back in distance to a full field means he can use that conditioning last out to sustain more run through the stretch here if he can get a clean trip and the front flight starts going backwards.$27.80 Winner     $2 Double 7-5 $345.60

#6 Admiral Eastwood Not likely but not impossible here as a bomb option.  Not much for finishing but last out’s 2F Figure at 74 is a gate speed advantage on everyone except the outside 3 runners (2 of which are AE).  If he happens to break clear and the experiment with blinkers works wonders, who knows?

#9 Rockin Cowboy Has been on an upward trajectory with this new barn over 5 starts and still hasn’t reached ability of last summer’s running lines.  Tough to leave out as one on the incremental improve the way he is.Show @ 22/1