March Kentucky Derby Preps

$400,000 Grade II Fountain of Youth S.
Gulfstream Park | Race 14 | Dirt | 8.5 Furlongs | 6:10 ET

#8 Locked
Must show up off a long break but closely fits the profile of runners that have won this race in the past showing good compression over distance with his routes coming in at 71/76 REV and 68/74h SOFT. When it comes to precociousness, I trust this type of runner that has shown professionalism with energy distribution early more than I do an E-type of runner that can be geared up and forward spent in a 1^st off the break situation. Any type of honest race flow and this one should be eating up the margins in the lane.

#5 Dornoch
Might be his race to lose here as the potential pacesetter off an 80/74 NPT with a good foundation of tactical speed routing at 73h/73h and 69/70 previously. Should be in top condition here off the NPT to repel the bids of first flight challenges, but unfortunately his top challenger in here, Locked, isn’t one to care what he does early so he won’t have the opportunity to establish pecking order on that one early. Instead, he’ll more likely be vulnerable and reaching in stretch as that one looks to reel in.

#1 Speak Easy
Exits a great maiden field I could see producing multiple next out winners on a fast 82h/76h NEG. Plenty of potential here with good pedigree to stretch out, but Sprint to Route into this race isn’t an angle that’s produced many winners. Might be a bounce candidate today off the NEG Pattern, but rates as one to watch. If he runs on decent here and triggers a REV, I could see his trajectory moving into top contention status for the Florida Derby or a similar future prep.

$300,000 Grade III Gotham S.
Aqueduct | Race 10 | Dirt | 8 Furlongs | Post 5:36 ET

#3 Deterministic
Certainly question marks surrounding a 6-month lay-off but the 72h/71 COMP fits well as one of the most professional debuts in this field and is also a plus for stretch outs. Pedigree suggests he’s faster than the slow break of debut that he overcame by circling the field.

#9 Eliminate
Strong look to tackle two turns as a juvenile and put up a REV first time routing. After opening the season with a tactical 73/70 maiden-breaker, runner can relish today’s “elongated sprint” with form that features a nice mix of energy distribution.

#6 Air Cav
Not much to look at recently with forward spent 69h/60h in the mud and 73/66 NPT in the slop, but he did have a COMP debut which we love for inexperienced runners and the connections liked him enough to try Grade I company. For such a big price, I’m willing to throw him on some tickets. If the track is dry, he could appreciate finally seeing that again. If it’s wet, at least it’ll be nothing he hasn’t seen before.

$300,000 Grade II San Felipe S.
Santa Anita Park | Race 6 | Dirt | 8.5 Furlongs | Post 6:00 ET (Sunday)

#3 Nysos
Will be a free space here off a local 73h/77 REV that rates many lengths above this small field.

#1 Scatify
Best chance if looking for an upset as his 77/73 at a mile features the fastest 4F Figure for a route in this field. Perhaps can get clear and brave from the rail to steal, but demand decent odds.

$150,000 John Battaglia Memorial S.
Turfway Park | Race 6 | All-Weather | 8.5 Furlongs | Post 8:25 ET

#4 Bolt At Midnight
Quick progression in his spreads to the point of owning the best local running line here off a 69h/72 win. Fits the profile of should-be favorite.

#5 Fidget
He’s a two-surface winner including the alluring COMP* designation and now with an NPT featuring an “off” Final, becomes eligible to be well overlaid in here while projected to improve.