Kentucky Oaks Day Picks

Picks & Analysis for Churchill Downs 5/5

Churchill Downs
May 5, 2023

Race 8 | Turf | 5.5 Furlongs
$300,000 Unbridled Sidney Stakes

#8 Oeuvre
Looking for the habitual winner to get back on track today with a better effort. There may have been a problem in last as she was never really ridden.

#9 Little Jewel
Good amount of speed signed on here including the 4/5 fav and see this one as a good option to take advantage of a possible pace set-up off the compressed 83h/80h.

 Race 9 | Dirt | 8.5 Furlongs
$750,000 Grade I La Troienne S.

#1 Played Hard
Excellent chance to take this race for herself here as a “horse for the course” consistently showing up with Final Figures the rest of this field hopes to peak to.

 #4 Secret Oath
If the inside horse can’t fire fresh off the lay-off, it’s a bit of a suspect field in terms of current condition and even though a favorite, might get offered fair odds here as she should have her way with the stretch runners in here should no one get brave out front.

Race 10 | Turf | 8.5 Furlongs
$500,000 Grade II Edgewood S.

#11 Revalita (FR)
Very deep stateside debut at 47h/70h, she was coming the fastest but just too late. Follow-up try features some extra distance and expected improvement.

#10 Flashy Gem
Interesting price play here with some real trajectory going. She triggered her PLOW 2nd out as a juvenile and hasn’t seen turf again but gets back to the grass exiting a pair of synthetic tries that featuring growing late speed.

Race 11 | Dirt | 9 Furlongs
$1,250,000 Grade I Kentucky Oaks 

#11 Defining Purpose
Sprung the “Out Of The Blue” running line to 74.8 / 77.8 in last when getting back to a dry track. Development has been more inconsistent than we’d typically like but looks like the value of the race as one that could be peaking hard right here and now with a chance to steal this race.

Race 12 | Dirt | 8.5 Furlongs

 #1 Curl Girl
Quickly flashing talent with the fast 75/75 REV first time routing with a preceding 80/73h sprinting, she can pop this gate and be tough to catch.

#5 Hayunevano
Pretty sudden uptick in running line last out which happened to come after trainer switch. Expect she’ll be ready to repeat second out for them and with the scratch of #7 she now becomes the runner with the largest dirt spread in field making her one to watch in stretch vs others.