Kentucky Downs Turf Cup Card

Picks & Analysis for 9/9/23

Race 1 | 6 Furlongs | $150k MSW

#2 Lite It Up Louie Above average pedigree for the trip, a good post considering the work tab littered with bullets, and a strong trainer/combo going. Would be surprised if she’s actually 6/1. I’d make her the favorite.

#8 Noto Not a ton of eye-catching pedigree across this field so we’ll mark it a worthy note Noto’s full sister won first out on Tampa turf. Nice blowout 4/94 gate work to tighten up for debut here. Trainer 3/14 at KDX with all winners under 4/1 so market support here might be a sign of liveliness.

#10 Two Sip Sally Both trainer and rider going well at this meet. The slow/fast/slow/fast kind of work tab is interesting. After a glance through some of Walsh’s other winners, looks like this isn’t out of the ordinary so no knock there. Looks like a contender but also has the feel of one that might get too much support when we have some other live ones we like here. Will see what is offered.

#11 Pinotslilgirl sustained a big NPT from start #1 to #2 and now gets set down with blinkers. $13.96 winner. 11-10 EX $48.78 per $1

#14 Charm Of The Song ML favorite scratches so Irad gets in on this AE instead. What better way to overcome weak turf debut statistics for the barn than to get away from traditional ovals and try here for the first out of the dam. Interested to see price offered before deciding on inclusion.

Race 2 | 8 Furlongs | $150k MSW

Strongest pedigree according to BRIS SPI/DPI comes from #2 Uncle Truly and #11 Uncle Bo with an honorable mention to #6 Fort Thomas. Outside of those contenders, the COMP* designation from #4 Dirbas draws the eye. Was a bit grindy there on dirt but perhaps with some turf for traction can show more late acceleration here off the positive debut form cycle pattern.

Could see an “Uncle” exacta but main focus might be on the #4 for me.

Race 3 | 10.5 Furlongs | Grade III Aristocrat Ladies Marathon S.

#4 Lady Rockstar (GB) ’23 has been a little rough for checks since a promising ’22 campaign, but a big PLOW move with a +30 turf spread offers a spot to push off from here and liking last win came at BEL which features a more sweeping turn than typical.  She’ll finally see similar again here today.

#5 Vergara Noticeable uptick in consistent bigger running lines since triggering PLOW 4-back. Continues in top form here and is plenty battled tested. $6.52 winner

Race 4 | 8 Furlongs | $160k Alw

#7 Pawky sits near the top of all the Quick Sort categories on Figures and while several others sport some strong conditioning patterns in their lines, much of this field has struggled to string together many races. Pawky stays in campaign here going 5th time of the year with both a REV on synthetic and a TDL on turf. There’s other potential around this field but if forced to pick one, Pawky offers the least question marks and should fire an honest try here.

Race 5 | 8 Furlongs | $150k MSW

#9 Auden You should never really be leaving a lone debut runner out. When this case arises in maiden events, you’re dealing with a full field of already proven losers. Many times we’ve seen a lone debut horse run off the screen at massive odds because they didn’t belong at the level. Obviously, the value in that concept is gone when there’s multiple firsters, and it may not apply here today as much since Auden looks like he could get some support at the windows, but this spot offered an opportunity to pitch the concept in general…so there you have it.

Back to the race, #6 Shockwave comes in on positive trajectory going COMP on debut, big turf spread on the surface switch second out, then a boost to 4F/6F/Final all in third start. Could continue upward firing fresh here for very live barn at the meet.

#7 St. John’s form began to degrade on main track but woke back up when introduced to turf. Was given a PLOW in last trying 12 panels for new barn that is on a win streak currently. 20% trainer chooses this one to be first KDX entry so have to imagine he’s well-intentioned. $8.92 winner

Race 6 | 10.5 Furlongs | $62.5k AOC

#10 Balladeer West coaster enters this year’s KDX invasion in much more fundamentally sound turf form and firmly looks like the one to beat on the sheets. Easy $15.30 winner

#11 Corelli Does a really good job of tracking rivals then aiming at the target to run down. Sports some of the biggest turf spreads in the field and looks to be the one to fear in the lane if #10 can’t kick away enough distance to stay safe.

These are the Top 2 on the morning line so you might decide to pick your poison here (E-Type with #10 or S-Type with #11) and single one of them rather than doubling the price of any horizontal ticket.

 Race 7 | 8 Furlongs | $150k MSW

#11 Theroanrunner Catches the eye as possible live longshot for being geared up on season debut to prompt a strong DPT before taking a shot at breaking maiden on turf and missing to runner that beat winners next out right here at KDX. 52/66h ELP running line only slightly below the top contenders in this field so the double-digit value here makes her an “A” horse for horizontals and Win Bet candidate.

#8 Hola Gata Only runner to top 70+ Final Figure two turns on grass when she was only a length beaten to an eventual Breeders’ Cup-placed rival. Seems to be back on the uptick here for third start of campaign. $11.50 winner

#7 King’s Secret (GB) PLOW designation for the fit SAR shipper here, I’m not surprised she’s earned ML favorite title.

#4 Frothy Like the 4F+Final+Turf Spread jumps between first 2 starts for DeVaux. 

Race 8 | 6.5 Furlongs | Grade II Franklin-Simpson S.

#11 Closethegame Sugar 2 for 2 on turf and earned a COMP only time on synthetic. Sheet is too solid on this one to be leaving out for a small barn that carefully enters limited entries to live spots. Rice is 5/6 on turf with an average payout of $21.

#8 Mo Stash Hiccup in last but sometimes the best spot is a dud thrown after a substantial conditioning move. Runner can bounce right back when still in campaign due to the preceding Form Cycle Pattern and the plus is that we often get overlaid odds due to some players scoffing at the perceived regression. In this case, the angle we’re playing is 2nd off the PLOW with an intervening “off” race.

#1 Frosted Departure Tough to ignore dirt speed trying turf for the first time, and in this case, quite a bit of it with the super forward 88/74 running line. Turf speed doesn’t necessarily translate to dirt speed, but vice versa with dirt speed switching to turf almost always translates. Less stressful dynamics at work here early which a runner making this surface switch can appreciate greatly. The only knock is this would likely be better suited on a tighter track than this Euro-type configuration.

#7 Sweet Cherry Pie Another dirt to turf runner with high velocity that could appreciate the new footing off a foundation of multiple NPTs and still on a full tank off a SOFT win.

#4 Bat Flip The only thing we’re missing here is if all these speed types ultimately melt the front down, who’s ready to take advantage from a stalking position. Bat Flip could be a surprising answer to cover the scenario going route to sprint here after a needed race and a nice foundation from last year of heavy compression (even energy distribution resulting in good late speed) compared to many other sprinters here.

 Race 9 | 8 Furlongs | Grade III Ladies Turf S.

#4 Querobin Dourada is an interesting runner that’s a more habitual winner than you’d think when first seeing a 15/1 ML tag, and more importantly the only one in here who can brag a local win. Comes in fit 2nd off the PLOW and a career best route Final offering an upset shot in a race that’s going to be tough to find value amongst the top half of who’s considered a contender here considering they just faced each other and all ran to within a length.

 Race 10 | 6 Furlongs | Grade II Ainsworth Turf Sprint

#12 Dr Zempf (GB) Love to see the well-compressed 79/79 out of BEL which should translate nicely here to a good run in the lane. 

#1 One Timer Closed last season off with a local Grade II win and looks live to repeat here off a quick 91/79 that could give him the controlling spot here if re-prompted.

#4 Bad Beat Brian Stands a chance to upset if he can get involved early stringing away in the first flight 2nd off the break. Not the best accelerator when behind but has plenty of grit when locked up. Most remembered for giving the great Caravel all he could handle dueling to a tight photo.

Race 11 | 6.5 Furlongs | Grade II Ladies Turf Sprint

#5 Tony Ann Barn liked what they saw first off the break so sent her east for a piece of the juicy purses KDX offers. Picked up where she left off last year figure-wise and should push forward to a new personal best today. 

#3 Wakanaka (IRE) Typically late on the scene with more compressed lines than a lot of the speedy types in here, this sweeping configuration could fit her style well and help get her home-free for the first time this year.

Race 12 | 12 Furlongs | Grade II Kentucky Turf Cup

#6 Me And Mr. C perhaps a bit disrespected with the double-digit ML going hot right now off three straight wins and a huge turf spread in last where he defied race flow a bit going 7th to 1st from 6F on while the 1st -4th at that split finished 2nd -5th behind him. I refuse to accept Corrales not notching multiple wins at the meet.