Kentucky Downs Saturday

Race 1 | Turf | 8 Furlongs
#5 Janka Seems worth a longshot’s look as the dramatic surface switch from sloppy dirt to Euro-style turf could bring dramatic improvement. PLUN often signals debut races that served as conditioners and you’ll typically see a much more honest spin second out. Had market support on debut and trainer/jockey combo are 3 for 4 here 2022-23.

Race 2 | Turf | 8 Furlongs
Might find it tough to find value here as it seems a competitive race between the likely top handful of odds-getters. #1 Heckled and #2 Doral both move in on strong trajectory 2^nd off a TDL and PLOW, respectively. #3 Etheric is interesting with back ability slightly better than the morning line favorite’s running line at DEL but off over a year, we probably want to look at some clocker reports for a hint at current condition. #4 Lady Emily Kathryn looks to be in good spot as well with a REV debut featuring a big late speed spread. #13 Frothy seems a big threat as well if drawing in as a “spread progressor” through 2 starts. Might ultimately end up being the one to stand with getting to work outside in the clear with the rest of our contenders all fighting each other for position down inside.

Race 3 | Turf | 6.5 Furlongs
#1 County Final Good-looking pattern combo here looking to jump off a REV/TDL. We are asking for a decent amount of uptick so demand double-digits.

Race 4 | Turf | 6.5 Furlongs
#4 Off Ramp Good spot to try turf again here off the NPT. Closed the quickest of em all in lone turf try back in October and now form seems to be at a higher level coming into this second turf attempt.

Race 5 | Turf | 7 Furlongs
#14 Committee Of One If he gets in, should fit well here as a controlling presence off a big 82/72 running line that towers the other experienced ones in here.
#2 Twirling Point A limited work tab (only 5 published works before debut) can sometimes indicate the barn is eager to get a runner entered as they currently hold strong condition.

Race 6 | Turf | 7 Furlongs
#3 Gatlinburg Interesting one who progressed on dirt REV to NPT to DPT getting more and more forward-spent. It would have been tough to call the +16 turf spread prompted with a switch to turf based off that main track progression. First against winners here could surprise at a price.
#7 Mr. Peeks Liking the quick turnaround in last in regard to compression as the +2 in last could be a sign of new form that translates well to turf racing. Had been much more forward spent until the NPT prompted more even energy distribution in last.

Race 7 | Turf | 6.5 Furlongs
#3 Beer Run Threw up duds on tighter configurations but sports a big running line at BEL which typically translates well here as KD features an even bigger wide sweeping turn. Should be set to show best and perhaps those couple duds will scare bettors off leaving him as a decent price.
#12 Straight And Level Flashed some talent on main track debut while although a NEG Pattern, did sustain 80 4F Figure velocity well enough he could break through that regressive pattern here trying less stressful turf. Lone half sib to race is 2 for 3 on grass already.

Race 8 | Turf | 8 Furlongs
#6 Talk Of The Nation As mentioned with a previous runner, I really like his quickest running line comes from BEL as it should translate well to this Euro-style track. 

Race 9 | Turf | 6.5 Furlongs
#3 Queen Picasso (GB) Winner of first two including a BEL spin and now coming off the TDL, a power subset of the PLOW you don’t see near as often and always need to take note when you do. Lots to like here especially if offering double-digits for an excellent barn.

Race 10 | Turf | 8 Furlongs
#10 Annapolis Favorite holds stout Figure advantages over the bulk of this field but price may end up too short considering the number of rivals in here who could like this new configuration.
#5 Smokin T Gets back to a firm track where he had strung together three straight Finals over 77 this campaign.
#7 Gray’s Fable Earned his PLOW two back, is coming off biggest turf spread, has experience on the course, and offers a nice price to try.