Keeneland Selections

Picks for 4/13/24

Race 1 | Dirt | 5.5 Furlongs | $20K MCL FM3+
#1 Gloriette | Draws the rail with consistently faster 4F Pace than these rivals. This oval can often be speed-favoring especially if the track is still a bit sloppy so watch out if she gets loose. On the other hand, there’s a threat the track could be drying out resulting in a sticky, peanut butter-like surface which could tire speed. First race of the day so we’re just not sure what to expect on how the track runs given the weather lately. This race could be skipped to see how the track is running, but if odds looks fair, fear the rail horse.
Next Up: #4 Iguazu (IRE) and #11 Let’s Go Brandi

Race 2 | Dirt | 7 Furlongs | $80k Clm FM3+
#4 Liam’s Champ | Best ability of this field with a tactical 74/70 on muddy dirt 2-back. Rates a contender against winners here back to a main track with some moisture in it.
Next Up: #6 St. Benedicts Prep and #5 Sassy Walker

Race 3 | Dirt | 7 Furlongs | $40k MCL 3+
#6 Paved In Gold | Needs work on late speed but fits as a threat to set pace off an 80 4F Figure. I’m skeptical this is a 15/1 horse but we’ll see what the public offers.
Next Up: #4 Eirik Ridge and #3 Zeca Diabo

Race 4 | Dirt | 6.5 Furlongs | $100k MSW 3
#3 Lou's Legacy | Good trajectory with a move forward in route form after sprinting an NPT the race before. They set him back down quick here in 14 days looking tight and on the improve.
Next Up: #1 Brody and #2 Title Contender

Race 5 | Turf | 8.5 Furlongs | $100k MSW 3F
#5 Scarlet Poppy (Ire) | Pedigree suggests this horse can run for days and shouldn’t mind if the course is giving either.
Next Up: #8 Argan and #6 Wine And Waves

Race 6 | Dirt | 8.5 Furlongs | $80k AOC FM4+
#5 Sultry Lass | Off a PLOW which doesn’t directly apply to today’s surface, but nonetheless is a sign of positive form. Had previously good compression in dirt pacelines so applying an upgrade to those figures makes her live at a price in a race where the heavy favorite is taking a suspicious drop that makers her tempting to beat.
Next Up: #2 Julia Shining and #4 Lil Kings Princess

Race 7 | Turf | 5.5 Furlongs | $300k GIII Giant’s Causeway S. | FM3+
#1 Play The Music | Last couple turf sprints close to this distance were 80+ Final Figures with a consistent turf spread (-4) that ranks her within range with a tactical kick against these.
Next Up: #9 Kissed By Fire and #5 B G Warrior

Race 8 | Dirt | 8.5 Furlongs | $100k AOC 4+
#4 Brigadier General | Sheet shows a consistent cycle of peaks and regressions. Blowout 82/79 CPT on this track three races back was met with two regressed pacelines, but now we may be in rested and recovered spot where he starts to wind back up today. This angle of simply backing back ability is typically reserved for prices so make sure offering is fair.
Next Up: #1 Giant Game and #7 Classic Catch

Race 9 | Turf | 8.5 Furlongs | $600k GI Jenny Wiley S. | FM4+
#6 Gina Romantica | 2 for 2 on this track going 69/81 last fall. She’s making her season debut earlier than usual for Chad indicating fit and ready to roll.
Next Up: #7 Surge Capacity and #1 Walkathon

Race 11 | Turf | 8.5 Furlongs | $110k ALW NW2 3YOs
#8 St. Armands Key | Standout pace of 78h/81 only looks stronger with give in the track. Wet turf isn’t ideal for grip to accelerate which gives advantages to front-running types.
Next Up: #6 Gorilla Trek and #1 Pure Poetry