Gulfstream Holy Bull Day

Race 1 | Tapeta (Off-Turf) | 8.3 Furlongs | $20k Clm NW2 4+Washed off the turf, watch out for the AEs drawing in.#13 Board Certified 65.7 / 76.7 in this spot ranks the best Final Figure at today’s surface/distance.#14 Quantum Theory looks quickly into form here with a PLOW after the 66.2 / 75.8 at today’s configuration.#9 Advance Cash Triggered a 74.2 / 75.1 REV in this spot for new barn. Looks to be geared up on the new training regimen and figure this one to be forwardly-placed with a chance to get first run at the stretch.#10 Cheers For Kitten Just missed a COMP on debut at 74.3 / 70.0 and could very well appreciate the softer fractions of a two-turn race here. Figure runner could offer decent odds here for the step up as while runners facing winners for the first time don’t have a particularly high winning percentage, they also typically don’t get bet as much as they should so overlay offering is possible with this one.

Race 2 | Tapeta | 8.3 Furlongs | $12,500 MC FM4+

#3 Katz That Gal Looking to pop off 3 straight NPTs including the sprint to route angle here. The NPT of last was a good conditioner for sustained pace and I expect an improvement to the previous 8.3F running lines that preceded.

Race 3 | Dirt | 6.5 Furlongs | $40k MOC SB4+

#3 Clever Enough Should be moving forward here off the NPT as he was best of the rest in a race with a runaway winner. Runner can probably make up ground at will against field of this caliber so watch for in the lane but could still be vulnerable to a “steal” type of rival. Expect this one to get plenty of support after Irad’s record-tying day so while he’s the top contender here, I wouldn’t be surprised if his price ends up making him a “try to beat” type of play instead.

#5 Chief Rocka Geared up after a year off, set an NPT with fastest 2F Figure of this field off the break. Looking for runner to be more professional with energy spent here. Not required but think if it’s raining it can only help carry him as well.

Race 4 | Tapeta | 5 Furlongs | $12,500 Clm NW2 FM4+

#5 gets odds-on for the ML here and while no knock on him, I’m a little suspect of the last race as a whole with #4, #5, and #7 all coming out of that race with figures at or close to lifetime tops. This is likely a “pass” race but I’ll give some consideration to #1 Oaxaca as a live longshot with the cut-back here. Last time seen sprinting featured a quick 89.7 2F Figure so with the positive form conditioning of a REV and PLOW since then, looking for this one to get out quick from the rail spot and be stronger late today than in the past.

Race 5 | Tapeta (Off-Turf) | 8.3 Furlongs | $84k MSW 3YOs

Tough race for our purposes here with mostly debut runners, many of which feature positive workout patterns and strong connections. I’ll at least offer a few notes on the experienced runners:

#3 Sara’s Shaman triggered a heavy PLUN on debut, a form cycle pattern that can sometimes signal a race was used as a workout and we can expect a much more competitive try next time. Was pacesetter in last so look for him early again. It might be a positive as well the intervening work was more relaxed than the previous bullets he was popping too.

#4 Mutaawid was a COMP on debut into a +7 turf spread so positive look coming in on this one.

#6 Carlin Clan Good pedigree but a NEG debut and a couple turf runs that feature smaller spreads than the few other experienced runners. Still watching this one.

#9 Jamestown NEG debut but decent speed into a mathematically negative turf spread. This one might require a little more development to see best.

Race 6 | Dirt | 7 Furlongs | $125k G3 Claiborne Farm Swale 3YOs

From a “Quick Sort” perspective, #6 Super Chow, the projected favorite, just misses being top of all 5 categories in the Value Plays’ menu by 0.1 points. We often find simply being atop all of those categories makes runners very hard to beat. Outside of that fav, one interesting rival is #1 General Jim who cuts back today with 4F/6F Figures pulled from the route that make him competitive here.

Race 7 | Tapeta (Off-Turf) | 8.3 Furlongs | $62,500 AOC 4+

#12 Red Danger Propelled off a PLOW/NPT combo to a big 68/79 running line first time on this Tapeta surface. Don’t think we’ll get double-digits but rates a “must use” all the same exiting a stakes try and also getting some possible benefit from Lasix.

#4 Samburu (GB) Not quite enough late at this level on grass, could like the Tapeta a little more off a strong 68/78 running line while picking up hot rider.

Race 8 | Dirt | 8 Furlongs | $75k AOC 3YOs

#7 Shesterkin Quick 80/71 on debut, this one has a good shot to be the speed here while breaking from a clear post. NEG, while typically a regressive pattern, doesn’t bother so much when it was earned on a runner that was always in control and likely could have run a tighter dirt spread if he really needed to in that debut. Could be a good single to take a stand on as if you’re looking to beat, I think there’s at least 3 rivals you’ll end up having to spread on. The #1 off a COMP/NPT looks to be an honest shipper, #3 off the REV and deep tapeta try should be coming in the lane, and the #6 could have some hidden ceiling off the SOFT win and COMP debut as a longshot in here.

Race 9 | Turf | 8.5 Furlongs | $175k G3 Kitten’s Joy 3YOs

#1 Candidate Unbeaten on turf but not the type of runner I trust at a lower price here. He’s made his living so far by getting separation and holding on. Plenty can go wrong here from the inside spot while continuing up the ladder against tougher rivals with the 69/76h running line being competitive but not stand-out.

#2 Souzak (FR) Didn’t do much on stateside debut but perhaps some moisture today could help. Last couple wins in France came on soft going. Prefer double-digits to consider.

#3 Moon CatProfessional look to trigger a REV on debut while being asked to go two turns and a winner next out on grass. So far so good in development to be have turf success going forward but the 67/73 running line needs a decent amount of improvement to match today’s foes plus the winning rider gets enticed elsewhere.

#4 Major Dude Solid 67/76 off the break and closed well. Should be primed for a strong stretch run again here. Strong favorite but certainly not unbeatable owning just a slight advantage on field in terms of projected turf spread into turf final figure.

#5 Lights Of Broadway Set a nice foundation on tapeta with a COMP, DPT, and a couple wins as a juvenile before spiking a respectable 71/77h on the surface switch.

#6 Dude N Colorado Easy COMP wins on the Tapeta can translate well to the turf for this strong trainer/owner combo. Should be in the running for win spot.

#7 Congruent Some positives here as runner looks to find some pop off the 67h/73h PLOW and a solid 70h/77 run at 7.5F. The form sets up for a possible peak but we’re asking for a good amount of improvement so prefer the odds float up a bit on this one.

#8 Boppy O Best try came holding strong on the lead on a good track. Perhaps if there’s some rain today and runner can get forward, there’s room for him to stay brave again and have a chance to steal the upset here.

Race 10 | Dirt | 7 Furlongs | $125k G3 Forward Gal 3YOs

A lot of runners here with some question marks coming off winter breaks or big spikes in performance, it could be wide open depending who decides to show up. That said, I found one runner thought to be most predictably in good form and primed for a contentious effort.

#6 Lynx Nice bump on the running line coming into ’23 while triggering the REV. The only runner with the sustained pace to set a higher Final Figure than 4F Figure and did it recently as well. Now cuts back to winning distance.

*Edit* with #6 Lynx unfortunately scratching from the race, I’ll now turn to #7 Undervalued Asset. Off the COMP debut, it’s an impressive form cycle pattern to trigger due to the margin of victory. Runners easily handling debut fields are much more prone to receiving false NEGs since they are often in cruise control late without urging. Ceiling could be high on this one.

Race 11 | Turf | 8.5 Furlongs | $175k G3 Sweetest Chant 3YOs

#2 Padma Solid try for sophomore debut off a lay-off to trigger a REV which is a pattern that can translate well to this surface switch. The lot of this field with grass experience is pretty evenly-matched so plenty of opportunity for this one if she shows up as a tier above this field for turf capability. The type of 5/1 chance that warrants a Win Bet.

Race 12 | Dirt | 8.5 Furlongs | $250k G3 Holy Bull 3YOs

#6 Legacy Isle The most likely “minor upset” type here due to the possible speed advantage after setting a Last 4F Figure over 4 points higher than others. If this one gets away comfortable up front, there may be nothing the favorite can do to make up that ground.

#4 Cyclone Mischief Looks to be a deserving favorite here off a fast and compressed 74/73. While plenty others come into this spot jumping forward, this is the lone runner that really possesses the previous foundation to handle a big run and keep pushing the ceiling up.