Florida Derby Picks

Gulfstream Park – Florida Derby Day
03/30/2024

Race 2 | Tapeta | 9 Furlongs | Post 11:59 ET
#2 Possiblemente – With each stretchout in distance recently, late pace spread moved from -8h to -12 to -14h at 9 panels where he was a winner last time. Looks to be the top late threat again today and might offer nice odds with a chance to get up if he gets an honest race flow.
#3 Spirit Animal – Short price but rightfully so having never missed the exacta for the current barn over a year’s worth of racing. Local spins of 67/77 and 68/78 make him a serious contender if sustained and a standout if improved upon.
#1 The Best Distance – Draws the inside with a liking for getting to the front. Reeled off 3 straight CPTs recently so plenty fit but advantageous 4F Figures have still gave way to lower Final Figures than these. Perhaps a chance to flash more even energy distribution for new barn today but demand odds.
#5 Fly The W – Nice horse for the course but after peaking a strong CPT/NPT combo that included ab blowout 75h/81h line, he’s regressed slightly in 2 subsequent races. Perhaps 3 races off that top running line, he could be fully recovered and run back to top form here, but I see no value in giving the benefit of the doubt to ML favorites so we’ll consider him vulnerable again today.

Race 3 | Turf | 7.5 Furlongs | Post 12:28 ET
#8 Set – Perhaps some actual pressure against winners here could change things, but otherwise no regressive indications present off the impressive 72h/80 debut that should see this one strongest in the lane.
#5 Double Your Money – Off the break here and fits well if ready to go based on the 79/78 line last December. Runner is in developmental stage of career so very possible that running line has plenty of leeway to shoot up today.
#6 Ari’s Magic – Always spikes my interest when connections like a runner enough to Triple Crown nominate and try turf. Many times have seen this type throw a dud on the main track only to appreciate the less stressful bounce of turf and go surprise at a price in a move like this.

Race 4 | Turf | 8.5 Furlongs | Post 12:57 ET
#1 Rotterdam – Was a winner off the break on tapeta and put up a solid 78h/86 in last when going the best late. Condition on an upward trajectory right now and should like the extra distance.
#4 O Captain – Dirt router tried turf off long break with a solid 70/80 at a flat mile. Was a bit slow to build acceleration in stretch but now has one under his belt and looks to pounce forward in second try. Now gelded and adds blinkers so doubling up on the “more focus” angles today.
#3 Spy Hunter – Stretches out off 92/86 at 5F perhaps in a good longshot spot here. Should be closer up today and with Jaramillo aboard probably be trying to steal. 

Race 5 | Dirt | 7 Furlongs | Post 1:26 ET
#4 Six Kings – Firster may have caught a nice spot facing a weaker than usual MSW field. Good works for Godolphin and of the debut runners, has the pedigree I prefer.

Race 6 | Turf | 12 Furlongs | Post 1:56 ET
#2 Kertez (GB) – Nothing to knock on French invader. Already proven on firm ground and may even upgrade stateside on a flat, even track vs. the nuanced ground across the pond.

Race 7 | Dirt | 8.5 Furlongs | Post 2:26 ET
#1 Lure Him In – Could get a set-up here for a late bid off the 2-back 68/73h and may offer nice value with 3,5,6 all looking like they could battle around while sharing co-favoritism.
#5 Tumbarumba – Did better work than the #3 and #6 in last and earned a better running line for it despite defeat. Looks tough in here off that tactical 75/75 and could take this race for himself if feeling good.

Race 8 | Turf | 8.5 Furlongs | Post 2:56 ET
#9 Pharoah’s Wine – Not much for double-digit turf spreads in this field so have to throw some respect this one’s way off the 67/80h.
#10 Madness – Price catches the eye with a disrespectful 30/1 ML. Like the stretchout back on turf after a strong conditioning combo of NPT on tapeta and a 91/84h sprinting on grass.

Race 9 | Dirt | 7 Furlongs | Post 3:31 ET
#1 Vivir Con Alegria (CHI) – Looks like a standout with the strong angle of 84/76 NPT off a break and now back in 28 days. His race to win or lose.

Race 10 | Turf | 12 Furlongs | Post 4:06 ET
No opinions.

Race 11 | Dirt | 8.5 Furlongs | Post 4:40 ET
#6 Gun Song – strong pattern of conditioning to this point going COMP/NPT/REV before victorious first time on a fast-rated track. Gets even more distance today and rates a top threat back off the tactical 71h/71h.
#7 America’s Vow – Move forward and more even energy distribution off an NPT is a positive indicator of condition’s trajectory. Outsider but perhaps gets up on some going backwards in stretch and find the board at a price.

Race 12 | Turf | 8.5 Furlongs | Post 5:15 ET
#7 Infinite Diamond – exits a race with a torrid pace and perhaps against today’s field graduates to a spot closer or on the pace with a chance to steal the upset off an 82/81h.

Race 13 | Turf | 8 Furlongs | Post 5:57 ET
#4 Big Everest (GB) – Bit of a question mark unable to string together races much lately but should be ready to go for this barn and the improvement in last peaks interest. Typically a bit forward spent previously, was suddenly deeper in last at 72h/83h with a double-digit spread not seen in a while. Wouldn’t be surprised to see this one run back strong today.
#1 County Final – Tapeta spreads developing in a way that could translate nicely to grass.
#3 Ice Chocolat (BRZ) – Strong local showings with back to back 80+ Finals and double-digit spreads. Think there’s plenty of invaders and surface switchers in strong condition here though that this one’s odds might be a bit low to take.

Florida Derby | Race 14 | Dirt | 9 Furlongs | Post 6:42 ET
#2 Hades – 3 for 3 and who knows what the ceiling is off a SOFT pattern which indicates plenty in the tank.
#7 Catalytic – Sneaky entry shipping over off a speedy but compressed enough 80/76 sprint holding the pedigree to like this sudden jump in distance.