Delta Downs Friday

Delta Downs
Friday, 12/29/23

Race 4: #4 to Win
Late Pick 5 (R5-9): 1,3 / 1 / 2,4,5,9 / 2,3,5,9 / 3,9 = $32
Race 5:  #3 to Win if liking the odds, 1/3 Exacta Box
Race 7:  #2 or #4 could be Win bets based on odds, Structure Tri or Super with 4 runners mentioned.

 Race 4 | Dirt | 7.5 Furlongs | $70k Boyd Rewards S.
#4 Ballinonabudjet
Pace figures indicate newfound tactical speed in current condition since triggering a CPT three 3 races back. No rivals are currently matching the -4 dirt spread range he’s put up last couple so should be one to deal with in stretch.

Race 5 | Dirt | 6.5 Furlongs | $5k Clm
Lot of forward-spent types in here with double-digit dirt spreads. #3 Special Operator on the uptick here increasing both 4F and Final Figures through last three races while maintaining a more tactical +5 range dirt spread. #1 Bind Faith should be a logical favorite in here able to flee the rail and make lead against these.

Race 6 | Dirt | 8 Furlongs | $5k SA
#1 Muffin Nuts
Looks like one of the more solid favorites of the day off double CPTs which is a very strong form cycle pattern at DED and EVD. Thinking single. Main concern would be if #3 Chaosmos were to show up as we could easily draw lines through last couple.

Race 7 | Dirt | 5 Furlongs | $7.5k SOC
#2 India Ink is plenty scary in here. Need the lead type should be geared up to go fresh just fine as he’s won off 3 straight lay-offs. No lone speed advantage on figures though, so he’ll have to create his own separation early.

#9 In The Arch looks plenty logical to be given the right set-up in here. Sports running lines a bit tighter than others and has a recent REV in form so if no speed gets brave and steals race, I like this one passing em late.

#4 Lode Of Blarney
His back form is loaded with 80/70 range running lines that would win today’s race. May be a needed race, but if he can run back to ability off the break, should offer nice upset payout. This one might be the 1 of these 4 contenders most worth a win bet, but we’ll see what the board offers.

#5 Carbon Stryker
If you forgive last race, the couple prior featured superior compression to this field. Couple that with his foundation of having more success going shorter and perhaps he’s returned the right spot today.

Race 8 | Dirt | 7.5 Furlongs | $70k Rosewater S.
#4 Basalt Street
Invades from FGX after posting a big 78/73h which indicates by far his best condition compared to his prior FGX campaign. Imagine he’ll be shorter than the 2/1 ML in here. Question is did he leave room in the tank to sustain off that campaign debut or do is there an increased chance of regression shipping back in 3 weeks. With plenty of head nods to favorites so far on the card, perhaps this is the race where I need to fade one. 

#5 World War
Love that he triggered a REV in last even when losing some race distance and has been known to win in streaks.

#9 Alliaceous
Dud in last but we’ll forgive. He puts blinkers back on for new barn here and stringing together 70+ Final Figures sprinting on this particular oval isn’t something any others in here have done.

If we indeed toss the #4 looking to beat, let’s spread more also covering #2 Muchmorethanready who has a good pattern going building tactical speed since the REV on the way to 3 straight wins. Another I’d throw on with odds if budget allows might be #3 Olivia G who seemed to like this footing popping a 74h/69h DTOP here that stands above her form elsewhere.

Race 9 | Dirt | 7 Furlongs | $10k MC
#9 Buffett
Whenever the bulk of a race’s betting chances are on invaders, try to identify the local top contender. When shippers get too much respect, you’ll often see the favorite of the locals go off at an overlay. So in this case, we’re basically just looking for the public to do their thing again and hammer #2 Benissimo and #3 Admiral Halsey while we bet-back their last mistake and now go with Buffett who invaded from the west coast last out and failed at 3/10 odds. With a familiarization trip out of the way, eligible to run to true local potential.

#3 Admiral Halsey
Pretty expensive to end up here for $10k but that’s how it goes sometimes. One thing I like about an A circuit turfer going to a bullring is they are already used to negotiating tighter turns. Should take money on big class drop.