Predicteform Picks
Posts
Coast-to-Coast Pick 5

Coast-to-Coast Pick 5

Santa Anita/Gulfstream Analysis for 1/7/23

Edit for ResultsLeg 1: #3 Cairo Consort just lasted at 1/2 with a storming #5 Stephanie's Charm just missing as our live longshot. No regrets on playing against this heavy favorite as we were almost there in what would have prompted probable payouts multiple times larger.Leg 2: #3 Thorne House definitely the best in here on a front-running win.Leg 3: #6 Moon Cat stormed home with tons of stretch acceleration.Leg 4: #1 Big Summer held strong up front as #5 Eddie's New Dream tried to eat away late.Leg 5: #3 Grazed My Heart with the tightest of photo finishes over #8 Sell The Dream.3 / 3 / 6 / 1 / 3 paid $1,017.70

7,5,9 / 5,8 / 6 / 1,5 / 8 = $12 base to start.1. Add runners to Leg 3 to fit budget.2. Choose a leg to add longshots to.3. If you have budget left, choose a #3 in Leg 1 or Leg 2 to add.

#3 Cairo Consort ($3.00)Might be a popular single to kick off this sequence coming off the break from BC for Todd/Irad. On the flipside, fading BC runners first back is a popular angle that’s done quite well and offers nice value.

#9 Erna Proven on the course off a 73h/74h win.

#5 Stephanie’s Charm Passed a bunch of em in last at 68h/72h with the +4 turf spread a positive here as other rivals trying that configuration have been closer to a 0 spread.

#7 Navy Goat Looks interesting off a massive -24 spread on synthetic while getting to see two turns on a traditional turf course for first time off bullet works.

#3 Thorne House ($4.40)Rates a solid contender but might end up short on odds compared to possibility of being part of a congested first flight as several dirt to turf rivals project to come out vying for forward early placings here.

#8 Joe Don Looney Popped a big one on main track with new barn and now looking for that condition to translate over to the grass today while getting a favorable rider switch.

#5 Fore Flag Mile form has been well improved since last sprint try compared to previous so expect transitive improvement to sprint form here. Was a long-time maiden but then almost pulled it off against winners after finally breaking through. The one that actually has some consistent positive turf spreads on resume so if a lot of speed causes this thing to fall apart, I like this one as a scenario play to pick up the pieces.

#6 Moon Cat ($9.00)They thought enough to try him two turns off the bat where his 62h/69 actually surpasses the late energy it takes to trigger a COMP and went right to a first-out REV instead. This can potentially translate quite well to turf here.

#9 Hardy Choice Lone PLOW here which is a pattern you want to see all turf runners trigger although it’s fair to say most of this field hasn’t gotten the chance to earn theirs yet. Caused a lot of own trouble in last and when it comes to lightly-raced runners, you have to figure they are more likely to repeat mistakes than fix them. Talent may be there but with short odds projected, tough to back this one value-wise overall.

#4 Cooler King One to consider if you’ve already planned to spread deep in this leg. Off an NPT, runner has been toughly conditioned to attempt stealing here with the move to the bounce of turf.

#8 My Sanctuary Longshot’s chance to wakeup here after being slow but deep on spread on debut and coming off a COMP on dirt.

*Trio of viable debut runners here between the #2, #7 and #11.

#1 Big Summer ($9.80)Big running line as a 84.7 / 80.1 winner last time on downhill and looks to be holding great condition moving back after a win on dirt and an NPT on tapeta. Might offer a ton of value if willing to take a stand here as there will be a lot of #3 and #5 fans in this race.

#5 Eddie’s New Dream Ran down a graded stakes winner last time on downhill and could maybe figure to end up favorite on the board here. They keep wanting her to go longer but she seems to belong more at this trip.

#8 Sunshine Babe Posted a positive turf spread in last for first time in a while so form could be trending upwards for an improvement here. Ran a good stretch last time on downhill despite some early trouble so with improvement rates a longshot look today.

#3 Alice Marble Tough runner in this spot a year ago often part of the pace while also around to duel in stretch all three spins.

#2 La Deuxieme Etoile Recent peaking in route form could give her some reason to compete against tougher here in stretch after going gate to wire on downhill in last.

#8 Sell The Dream Runner looks like a good favorite coming off the favorable PLOW pattern while owning the best Last and Lifetime Top Final Figures of field. Might be a popular single amongst bettors here which I can understand. Only knock would be there’s a lot of runners with positive form cycle patterns coming in here meaning a lot of chances for someone to fire and run a peak performance making for a lot of value in this race if you can find the upset. Let’s run through the field and reasons why each might be able to win.

#1 Carole Lombard Runners’ first time against winners is overall a low-percentage winning spot. However, it’s also an often under-bet spot as these types win much more than their odds suggest they should. Regular rider of both this one and #9 lands with this one.

#2 Golden Again Never been on grass so could always like it and just wake up but I’m skeptical. Siblings haven’t done much with turf and energy distribution in dirt resume doesn’t show any trends toward wanting a switch.

#3 Grazed My Heart ($13.80)Needs improvement first time against winners on turf but has received positive workout grades and comes off a multi-surface PLOW/REV pattern combo.

#4 Cholly NPT dirt to turf can be a nice spot for longshots but you typically want a foundation to run back to on that conditioning angle. Tries two turns for the first time and was a bit disappointing in lone turf try so there’s obstacles.

#6 Loyal To A Fault Throw out the wet fast try and he’s off an improved running line that resulted from triggering the PLOW pattern. Can be in first flight here and have a chance to get first kick at the stretch but must watch out late as most of this field has much better turf spreads (late acceleration).

#7 Quickly Park It Can improve with a cleaner trip than last after triggering the PLOW pattern and was only 1 ½ lengths slower than today’s favorite through the final two splits that day.

#9 Cast Member Undefeated on dirt, the first by this dam’s dirt spreads trend toward wanting either turf or distance going +8 to +3 to -1. Everything looks legitimate here for contention, but you know what they say. When a runner is trying something new, don’t yield a short price.