Blue Grass Stakes

$1,000,000 Grade I Blue Grass Stakes
Keeneland | Race 10 | Dirt | 9 Furlongs | Post 5:52 ET

#1 Top Conor | Debut winner cost a million so there’s got to be expectations. Unfortunately, 71h/61 NEG is a tough paceline to lure me into liking extra distance and tougher competition so I’ll have to toss him for this spin.

#2 Be You | Promising debut as a 78/74h COMP winner and positive NPT/REV pattern but didn’t quite keep it going regressing in more recent routes. Pedigree says this one should have liked spreading speed over more distance but he’s been a bit meh with distance. Suddenly in last when going shorter, that big tactical speed flashed itself again for him with a 76h/75h win. Perhaps that could trigger his true potential here, but for single digit odds I still can’t shake the fact he’s 0 for 3 at a mile and up, and now must go his furthest ever. Gotta give me better odds to excuse the past runs and back his potential.

#3 Seize The Grey | Bit forward-spent as a juvenile but it made for good conditioning as he showed back up as a sophomore with better developed stamina to compliment. Trajectory of his dirt spreads are tightening +8 before the break to -3 after the break to -8h most recently, which means he’s eligible to move forward with more distance. Live longshot here.

#4 Dornoch | Strong rater showing excellent sustained pace over distance in early stages of development. This will be a good test today as we get into the 2^nd quarter of the sophomore season where a little later developing rivals begin to catch up with runners like this one. Full brother won the Kentucky Derby so could be the real deal but we’ll see. He’s already qualified to the Derby so he technically doesn’t need anything today. That doesn’t mean there won’t be intention to win, but it does mean instead of using a go to the front tactic giving him the best shot to win, they’ll instead have the chance here to “practice” stalking and intend to come out behind the pacesetters. Too much love for the #10 would definitely help his value but otherwise I wouldn’t yield too short of price on this one.

#5 Good Money | Not a great look to fail taking advantage of a soft pace in last on a deep 53/71 REV, but I’ll also lend him a partial excuse that it’s not all about splits. Simply being contended with early can put enough stress on a horse that it simulates being part of a more honest pace. Even so, not enough for me to like him today as a big move forward is needed.

#6 Just A Touch | Only sloppy tracks on the resume so far which features a solid combo of 77h/75 COMP and 72h/73 REV. Professional form cycle patterns that typically translate well for young runners to stretch out. That said, they can also be aided in being triggered by sloppy tracks that are often not as trying on runners as fast-rated tracks. That’s not so much a downgrade, but just a cautionary note on those patterns themselves. Most of today’s field has been over a mile so little extra distance test for this one today compared. Morning works have looked great. Expect a contentious effort but with a few things to prove so demanding 9/2 range to use on some tickets.

#7 Lat Long | Some solid conditioning patterns in his first campaign to inspire, but at face value the figures themselves were a step below today’s rivals. Should be tight off a big bullet work and you never know with lightly-raced runners, but would agree with the ML maker that he’s one of the longer shots for today.

#8 Epic Ride | He’s only seen synthetic so far and his trajectory has been great with his dirt spreads trending toward appreciating distance. The question that remains now is how he’ll take to the added stress of a dirt surface. Not typically big on getting too excited with runners that are schooled on synthetic only. Dirt puts speed into runners and turf puts stamina into runners, but synthetic is just sort of caught in the middle where it doesn’t condition a runner much in either direction. Tempting to have on some tickets at a price.

#9 Mugatu | Well experienced for a runner his age but pacelines across experimenting with all three surfaces rate too slow for today’s group of rivals.

#10 Sierra Leone | Super deep dirt spreads for this one meaning excellent late speed, and he’s done it no matter the footing. Running style would be his only knock here. Dirt racing consists fundamentally of races of deceleration, and a closer can’t typically just go take a race themselves. They need some sort of help in the form of an honest race flow and not letting a runner go lone and relaxed out on a lead because you’ll never catch them no matter how loaded you are. That said, he’s the one to beat and should be roaring in stretch. I don’t mind 2/1 favoritism based on how strong he is, but if he starts getting hammered down shorter, I’ll have to look elsewhere because then there’s more opportunity on the other wide of those odds for someone to get brave here and steal the wire before he’s up.

#11 Encino | Very similar look to what we found with the #8 horse trending well toward more distance but also cautious due to synthetic spins only on the resume.

Wagering
Without seeing live odds, my initial temptation is to key on the 10 as top threat and key the 3 in exotics for value. Example of Trifecta would be:
$2 [10 with 3 with 2,4,6,8,11]
$2 [10 with 2,4,6,8,11 with 3]
$0.50 [3 with 10 with 2,4,6,8,11]
$0.50 [2,4,6,8,11 with 10 with 3]