Belmont Stakes Day

Belmont Stakes Day

Race 1 | Turf | 6 Furlongs
$90,000 Maiden Special Weight for 3YO+ F&M

 #12 Advance Attack
Looks juicy to see double-digit odds could be offered on this firster.

#10 Cindylouwho
An outsider but still plenty worth consideration in wide open event if investment for ticket inclusion is minimal as she sports a nice step forward in turf spread on the GP spins going -9.5 to -2.7.

Wagering
Wild possibilities to kick off the day so we’re spreading wide in bigger Pick Ns and taking stands later. Would limit keying the above-mentioned runners to a kick-off Double.

Race 2 | Turf | 7 Furlongs
$80,000 Allowance for 3YO+ F&M

 #8 Silver Skillet
Forwardly-spent in dirt tires just not liking the early stress of those dynamics but the multiple NPTs serve as great conditioning while racing for the switch to grass this barn was waiting on. Would prefer more compression but can’t ignore for double-digits nonetheless.

#2 Solib
Massive improvement is always a bounce candidate, but considering the well-compressed turf line came off a long break for a new barn, there’s reason to believe this is new and exciting form that can stick.

Wagering
Win bet on #8 and putting 2,8 in all positions for Trifecta with a wildcard eligible to hit the board in this race that could offer nice value possibly drawing gimmick action on a bad ML fav in #4.

Race 3 | Dirt | 6.5 Furlongs
$250,000 Grade II True North S. for Older

#1 Today’s Flavor
With slop carrying last out’s romp, may as well call that one a SOFT and figure this one has plenty in the tank off the big NPT move 2-back. Big threat skimming the rail here.

Wagering
Small field but looks ultra competitive nonetheless. Probably want to stay away from horizontals, but if #1 happens to float up enough, a Win bet could be a possibility.

Smaller fields tend to force the mentality that you should be shallow in this leg of Pick Ns so any upset of the favorite here is often even more valuable than you think. Don’t be afraid to spread in this one and take stands elsewhere.

Race 4 | Dirt | 7 Furlongs
$95,000 Allowance for 3YOs 

#1 American Law
Sudden compression at -1 dirt spread in last off double NPTs indicate a runner cycling into peak form.

#6 Bouncer
DTOPs deserve consideration when they’re triggered. Culmination of a campaign equals big bounce candidate, but in this case we’re off the break which on the flipside can signal a runner coming into his own. Slow maintenance works indicate possibility barn just wants to get to race day.

Wagering
#1 an excellent Win bet if actually holding the 4/1 ML but otherwise we’re 2-deep here in Pick Ns.

Race 5 | Turf | 8 Furlongs
$200,000 Grade III Poker S. for Older

#1 Chez Pierre (FR)
Good favorite here as even though last out was a big pop, the PLOW designation is almost never followed with a bounce. Has truly come into top form and figures to stay that way for a bit.

Wagering
Single in Pick Ns.

Race 6 | Dirt | 12 Furlongs
$250,000 Grade II Brooklyn S. for Older

#4 Bright Future
The name says it all as this one DTOP’d out of a long lay-off and now looks to press that higher off an NPT.

Wagering
Win bet.

Race 7 | Dirt | 8.5 Furlongs
$500,000 Grade I Ogden Phipps S. for Older F&M

#5 Played Hard
Fastest 4F and 6F velocity threatens to just control this one start to finish and can’t be left out in this smaller field for any price.

#6 Clairiere
ML maker smart enough to make this one the favorite. No one is really close in terms of late speed other than Secret Oath but she’s a bit of a money burner while this one loves running at a target more consistently.

Wagering
Opposing run styles can make runners iffy propositions to be inclusive in verticals but make excellent sense 2-deep in horizontals.

Race 8 | Dirt | 7 Furlongs
$400,000 Grade I Woody Stephen S. for 3YOs

Lesser experienced group here immediately has me drawn to the large amount of DTOPs. While DTOPs are naturally going to occur early for sophomores and can be taken less seriously for regression since we aren’t sure where the runner’s ceiling really is yet, that also means runners without the DTOP threaten to pop it at anytime. Situation like this calls for a hard fade on the DTOPs and keys on the up-and-comers.

#1 New York Thunder
While others are DTOP’ing, this one sports the REV at one turn which isn’t done very often. Not sure we’ll get the double-digit ML but fair odds should be offered regardless looking for 5/1+ to bet.

#3 Arabian Lion
Massive steps forward at 2 turns with spread going -2 to -4 to -11. He’s well-equipped to handle a sprint with nicely-compressed Figs to kick off career but honestly confused why we’re cutting back today given the forward progression routing.

Wagering
#1 to Win
Exacta: Defensive 3-1 cold.
Superfecta:
1 w 3 w 1,3,5,6,10,11 w 1,3,5,6,10,11
1 w 1,3,5,6,10,11 w 3 w 1,3,5,6,10,11

Race 9 | Turf | 6 Furlongs
$400,000 Grade I Jaipur Invitational for 3YO+

#9 Nothing Better
There’s a whole lot of compression in this race with good turfers that can do a lot of damage late which begs the question who gets the trip and clearance to make the strongest stretch run? There’s a lot of right answers to that question so it makes for an excellent spot to make a stand with a runner that could just deny that entire hypothetical and put em away with pure speed here. Three straight 90+ 4F Figures is not often prompted on this surface and he gets the inside position on the ML favorite Carvel who is the only other E-8 in today.

Wagering
#9 to Win all day. 

Race 10 | Dirt | 8 Furlongs
$1,000,000 Grade I Metropolitan Handicap for 3YO+

#4 Hoist The Gold
He’s made a habit of catching a lot of place finishes with 5 seconds to 1 win the last 2 years as he always seems to be optimistically placed up against monsters. With plenty of practice running against stout competition, I see no better time for him to suddenly spark an upset than off a huge 83/81 CPT. By comparison, the last time he prompted this pattern it featured far less finish at 83/76h CPT. No chance I leave this one out of the exotics.

#1 Cody’s Wish
Just a neck separates him from being undefeated against winners. If he runs his race and stays out of trouble, might be unbeatable off a 78h/84 that features compression (-6 dirt spread) you just don’t see often out of one-turn races.

Wagering

#4 should be locked into any exotics bets made. Otherwise, I’ll certainly have a win bet and some Pick N tickets going with him along with a cold 1-4 exacta as the back-up ticket if it’s probable at $30 per $1+.

Race 11 | Inner Turf | 10 Furlongs
$750,000 Grade I Manhattan S. for Older

 #5 Soldier Rising (GB)
Runner has a massive stride length and catches the eye as value for double digits here if Jose can be more aggressive. Runner takes a bit to get revved into top gear so a but back in distance does look immediately ideal, but perhaps a little more up-tempo pace is his game as his spins under 10F feature turf spreads just as big if not bigger at times than his routes over 10F.

#6 Red Knight
Yes, the Final Figures have been regressing since kicking off the 9 year-old campaign, however, he did things last to first so easily and confidently, you have to think there’s a lot of upside available in the tank today. Will have to get to know new rider but you just can’t leave out a “horse for the course” as he’s 5 for 11 here and coming off a comfortable Grade I victory.

#4 Ottoman Fleet (GB)
Massive stateside debut at 55h/79h where he destroyed Grade II competition looking at the final 3F split (turf spread of +24). He’s been training aggressively for a deadly barn and should strut his stuff today. The question will be how he measures up moving on to face much better routers today than last.

#8 Up To The Mark
This ML favorite serves as a nice example why “Who’s going to win?” is the wrong question and “What price would you bet this horse to win?” is a much better one. If you offer some decent odds, I’m all over a runner 2^nd off the TDL as it’s a powerful pattern for turf movers that not all will trigger over their career. On the flipside though, +160 is a tough line to take on a runner that’s consistently taking very wide trips.

Wagering
My stand will be looking for the upset to come out of the Man O War Stakes as I’ll mix #5 and #6 into my tickets. Will watch the board for #4 or #8 possibly getting forgotten and offering fair odds to add, but I doubt that materializes.

Race 12 | Dirt | 12 Furlongs
$1,5000,000 Grade I Belmont Stakes for 3YOs

#1 Tapit Shoes
Wide throughout and still had a nice stride going late, can sit ground-saving trip and have more energy to push off this NPT that featured a much more compressed dirt spread than we typically see with runners prompting that pattern. Big distance and class test but odds and pattern are there for him to put up an honest try.

#2 Tapit Trice
Very disappointing spin for backers as a co-favorite in the Derby with the other co-fav Angel Of Empire getting a very similar trip but vastly outkicking him late. I gave him a fade review for the Derby due to the pair of DTOPs signalling he could possibly be close to a ceiling and after a disappointing showing, he’s unbettable again for me offering shorter odds.

#3 Arcangelo
Off a local 57h/72h SOFT win, he pushed off an easy pace and dueled well to get the nod. Things to like coming out of a historically good prep for this race but the $35k purchase is getting enough wise guy action, I think the question marks about this step-up outweigh consideration for wagering.

#4 National Treasure
Gritty heart to stay up in the Preakness and strong look to survive a quick stride frequency. As we stretch out to 12 panels here though it’s going to get tougher as we typically prefer runners with bigger strides who can eat more ground over the extra distance. 3 weeks removed from giving us his largest dirt spread in career by far, it’s going to be tough to re-create and I’d lean on the side of beating him.

#5 Il Miracolo
We like NPTs around here as they often set up for improvement, but the amount of improvement we’re asking for here is probably higher than any likely odds offered. Runner was sub-70 on Final Figure in last and just not touching this group with any career efforts. Gotta run a race and a half compared to his last trip to figure.

#6 Forte
Based on his style of out-striding the competition over distance, it's a surprising dirt spread trajectory to see him actually have been progressing sustainable pace -10 to -8 to -5h. Much more typical would be going more mathematically negative in prep races as distance is added.  Would seem to me this is not about a horse expending more energy early as a fault, but rather just a pro stepping up his pace each race to match the increasing class of the competition.  Looks locked and loaded to be the deserving favorite here IF he’s fully sound. He stumbled yet again in a Belmont work just as he did before scratching out of the Derby which has some folks throwing red flags. 

#7 Hit Show
Loved this one for the Derby after an excellent spattering of patterns in his foundation. Prompted a nice DTOP that featured speed while staying compressed at 82/82 but ultimately wasn’t quite strong enough over the distance despite a pretty great trip for an 18-horse race. Very tempting as a bet-back if given 15/1 or so but the distance is a concern for a runner that shortened stride some in the last furlong of Derby.

#8 Angel Of Empire
Opposite of what we just discussed with Forte, this one has a more traditional dirt spread progression for this race prompting larger dirt spreads (late speed) race over race and is a perfect fit for this configuration. Belmont’s large sweeping turns are a plus here as there’s less opportunity for front-runners to sling-shot a turn and hold off closers like this guy.

#9 Red Route One
Lacked his usual big closing kick in last. Don’t know there was an excuse as the 4F/6F was no hotter than his usual and while he did make a nice move forward in Final Figure personally, he still lacked that late run compared to what his rivals showed. Could just be racing at his ceiling currently and match that to a runner that needs to be given a set-up by others, and I’m not thinking I can bet this one back here.

Wagering
I think Forte holds the key here to my wagering strategy which will be 2-part: Key or Toss.

Ticket #1: #6 keyed on top of 1,7,8.
Ticket #2: Boxing 1,7,8

Race 13 | Turf | 8.5 Furlongs
$80,000 Allowance for NY-Bred

#1 Spirit Of St Louis
When talking surface switches, there’s no better combo pattern than COMP/REV trying grass but race is contentious enough I’m not interested in yielding favoritism.

#2 Let’s Go Big Blue
TDL is such a positive pattern, it makes me nervous to see this one improve off it then not carry on the campaign. This could be a needed race and reason to toss the 2^nd odds on the board.

#3 Clear Conscience
2^nd out PLOW means we have a quick learner on tap.

#5 Sell Something
Top Contender for Value Plays’ menu as one of the more experienced here and 2^nd off a big running line might make this one a good win bet try for the right odds in a contentious field.

#6 Mighty Atlas
Nothing but positive Form Cycle Patterns on the main track now trying the less stressful bounce of turf is plenty enough reason to be trying this one if he’s really going to be this cold on the board given a 30/1 ML here.

Wagering
A lot of contenders in this one. Skippable outside any of them floating up to juicy odds, and I would suggest moving on to evening tracks such as Evangeline Downs where runners designated as “Too Slow” by Value Plays algo are hitting well below the average (2% winners in June) making them easy fades for constructing Pick Ns.