Aqueduct Late Pick 4

Aqueduct Late Pick 4 (Races 6-9)
Saturday, 12/30/23

Race 6 | Dirt | 9 Furlongs | $90k Alw
#1 Overstep looks like a solid favorite in here that could easily control this race leaving rivals no tangible chance to take it away. Probably not a great betting race because if he does falter, I could see any of these taking advantage and stepping up. If I’m forced to choose, have to give the nod to #4 Leading Contender second off an NPT and sporting more late speed (mathematically negative dirt spreads) than the rest.

 Race 7 | Dirt | 7 Furlongs | $50k SA
#3 Irish Jackson offers hard-to-ignore look off a COMP/NPT combo to kick off career. The 4F uptick while maintaining Final Figure is text book positive development in pace sustainment and what the NPT is all about. For comparison, she comes out of a 73/66 while today’s ML favorite comes out of a 72h/68h. Each point at 6F is 1.5 lengths so we need 3.75 lengths of improvement off the same pace to match today’s recent ability of the ML favorite. For that solid step up being asked, I’m thinking minimum 6/1 would be a fair target price for me to slap a wager on her name. Other than that, I think her and the ML fav stand out as a logical pair here. On the flipside, #4 Roman Goddess should be at least 2/1 so anything higher deserves a win bet that way instead. Exacta Box [3,4] 

Race 8 | Dirt | 6 Furlongs | $75k Alw
#2 The Institute
Tried to target this state-bred spot last year and seemed to get bullied down the back stretch relegated to chasing behind a lot of kickback which caused him to go quite wide through the turn. He shipped into that race off a 78h/75 win and now ships into today off a 73/77 win. So, we have a potential excuse for last time on this surface’s dud and we have a running line that seems to indicate improved year-over-year form. There’s plenty of E types in this field so I could see him getting a favorable set up and fair chance for redemption here.

#7 Agility
Mystery condition off long break but just going off back ability, I like that his AQU lines are mostly tighter than when he races elsewhere.

#5 Kaz Sugar Bank
You’ve got a router setting down into a sprint (proved he can do in last) looking for an honest race flow to run into which I think we’ve got today if no one walks up front. Shipping in from a track like Penn, it’s almost a guarantee he’ll be disrespected on the board so he’s got to be on some tickets. Off the 71h/71 at PEN, he looks an awful lot like the type of potential winner you don’t see as logical until you go back to the form afterwards.

Race 9 | Dirt | 6.5 Furlongs | $25k Clm
Prospective favorite could be any horse off long break and the other speed types in here seem to have some question marks and possibly be on regressive patterns. I’m looking to go out on a limb and bet the race for late speed. Another snippet, REV patterns are the strongest form cycle pattern for Aqueduct statistically so it reasons that tighter running lines (which indicates even energy distribution and more tactical speed) would be favorable here across the board.

#9 Gun Maestro
Should make an honest run at em late from the tight 69/68 running line last out. The last time he was even close to the +1 dirt spread he just put up was a +3 in February which was also his last win so clearly he’s in better form to compete when he’s in this type of current condition. Has recent NPTs for conditioning and now is the time to put it all together.

Possible Board Hitters
#3 Three Zero
Claimed to high percentage barn off the strong conditioning of 78/67 NPT. 70% chance for dramatic improvement here and 30% chance needs a race and throws a dud, in which case we Stable Watch for next time entered.

#8 Blue Plate Special
Sudden uptick with compression to 71h/69 in second start for new barn. If this was an “out of the blue” uptick, I usually dismiss them as “one-offs” but it makes sense here given his new training regimen so I’ll back that he can repeat his new and more competitive figures today.

#11 Bayou Spirit
Shaky foundation but newfound soundness upon turning 3 with a tight 68/66 maiden breaker and 71/67h coming into today.

#4 Burn Jakey Burn
Insane amount of conditioning and building sustainable pace here off NPT/DTOP/DTOP/DTOP. At some point down the line this one is going to pop off at a good price and I would keep an eye on him with Stable Watch. As for the short-term, I’d typically expect a needed lay-off to be shortcoming after a stressful string of races like his.

Race 9 Wagers
#9 to Win 

Thinking I’ll structure a Tri/Super that looks something like this:
1. Key our 9 into exacta
2. Need 2 of our 3 board hitters
3. Wild card spot for super
Tri 9 / 3,8,11 / 3,8,11 = $6 for $1
Super 9 / 3,8,11 / ALL / 3,8,11 = $9.60 for $0.20
Super 9 / ALL / 3,8,11 / 3,8,11 = $9.60 for $0.20
Tri 3,8,11 / 9 / 3,8,11 = $6 for $1
Super 3,8,11 / 9 / ALL / 3,8,11 = $4.80 for $0.10
= $36

Pick 4
This looks like the type of sequence where I want to try hitting multiple times with a structure that leaves some room to accept I’m probably going to be wrong in 1 of the 4 legs while also putting myself live to hit multiple times to my stronger and/or more valuable opinions while avoiding stringing together several favorites at the same time. If my budget was around $100, I’m looking at something like this to start and we’ll see how it cheapens up with scratches then make additions to spread legs if able.
$1.00 – 1 / 4 / 2,5 / 1-6,8,9,11 = $18
$0.50 – 1 / 4 / 1,2,5,7,8,10 / 3,8,9,11 = $12
$1.00 – 1 / 3,4 / 2,5 / 3,8,9,11 = $16
$1.00 – 1 / 3,4 / 1,2,5,7,8,10 / 9 = $12
$0.50 – 1 / 3 / 2,5,7 / 1-6,8,9,11 = $13.50
$0.50 – 1 / 1,8,9 / 2,5,7 / 3,8,9,11 = $18
$0.50 – All but 1 / 3,4 / 2,5,7 / 9 = $18
=$107.50